Weekend Preview: Home Run for Robinson

Jackie Robinson biopic 42 should have no problem hitting a home run this weekend (though it won't get anywhere close to a grand slam), while Scary Movie 5 will have a hard time scaring up much of an audience. In limited release, The Place Beyond the Pines and Trance are expanding into into moderate releases, while Terrence Malick's To The Wonder opens in 18 theaters.

Though it is still considered "America's Pastime", baseball has always been a tough sell at the box office. No baseball film has ever opened above $20 million, though 2011's Moneyball got the closest with its $19.5 million opening weekend. The highest grossing baseball film of all time is 1992's A League of Their Own which grossed $107 million at the domestic box office. In comparison, four films about football (Remember the Titans, The Longest Yard, The Waterboy, and The Blind Side) have domestic grosses above $115 million. Considering Robinson's reputation and the film's mostly good reviews, I think 42 might have a chance at stealing third base towards having the highest grossing opening weekend of all time for a film about baseball, but I'm not sure it can make it all the way to home plate.

Probably the only people who are hoping the feel good baseball movie of the year is a flop are the Weinstein curmudgeons, because they know that is the only way that Scary Movie 5 has any hope at success. The horror spoof genre has already had one major success so far this year: January's A Haunted House. That film opened to $18 million on its way to a $40 million total domestic gross, against a $2.5 million production budget. Scary Movie 5 cost $20 million and is opening thirteen years after the first film in the franchise (and seven since the most recent), featuring two "stars" who only the tabloids really care about anymore. Brand recognition might get this to a $15 million opening weekend, but it won't open above A Haunted House.

After grossing $1.3 million during its two weeks in under thirty theaters, The Place Beyond the Pines is set to expand into 514 theaters this weekend. The film should make between $5 and $10 million this weekend, which would set it nicely on track toward passing its $15 million production budget. Trance, which has grossed $163,523 so far, is expanding into 438 theaters this weekend. It will definitely gross less than Pines, though anything below $3 million would be pretty disappointing. Lastly, To The Wonder is opening in 18 theaters and will have a hard time reaching $1 million. Malick's The Tree of Life opened to $372,920 from four theaters, which would suggest a $1.6 million opening weekend for To The Wonder. Unfortunately Wonder also has to contend with The Tree of Life's reputation, which will probably drive its final domestic gross below that film's $13 million haul.

So are you going to the cinema this weekend for the big game or to see one of the more obscure choices?

Tune in next week to see Oblivion battle Tom Cruise's reputation.