Weekend Preview: Taking Prisoners

There is already talk about Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhaal's Oscar prospects, but will that turn into box office proceeds? Prisoners will abduct 3,260 theaters this weekend, while yet-another-dance-movie Battle of the Year is going show its moves in 2,008 theaters. A week before its nationwide release, Ron Howard's Formula 1 biopic Rush begins its warm-up lap with a limited five theater New York/Los Angeles release. Also: Warner Bros. is giving us a chance to re-walk the yellow brick road, this time in IMAX 3D!

Prisoners should have no trouble taking over the box office this weekend. Despite the overall slowness of the September box office, smart action thrillers with big stars can usually manage to draw the more discerning adult audiences who are under-represented during the summer, and therefore feel less "theater fatigue." Recent examples include End of Watch ($13 million opening), Contagion ($22 million), The Town ($23 million), and The Brave One ($13 million). With a great cast including Jackman, Gyllenhaal, Viola Davis, Terence Howard, Paul Dano, and Melissa Leo, Prisoners should fall somewhere in the middle of the four films mentioned above. I expect it to gross around $17 million.

My expectations for Battle are a little bleaker. Dance movies are notoriously hard sells, especially dance competition films. Even the top franchise in the genre, Step Up, has been languishing in its recent installments. Step Up opened to a respectable $20 million back in 2006, but each sequel has fallen further from that mark ($18 million, $15 million, $11 million.) So how much demand is there for an original dance competition movie, especially now that its target audience is back in school? I expect Battle to have a hard time landing on its feet, and most likely fall short of the Step Up franchise's low tide mark. My prediction: under $10 million.

The Wizard of Oz is one of the most beloved films of all time, but do audiences really want to see the flying monkeys in 3D? Considering the continued decline in popularity of 3D films, I think it's surprising that Warner Bros. is releasing this now. The best opening weekends for 3D re-releases came from The Lion King 3D ($30 million) and The Phantom Menace 3D ($22 million), while Beauty and the Beast 3D, Titanic 3D, and Finding Nemo 3D all opened above $15 million. However, all of those films were re-released in over 2,000 theaters. Oz 3D is opening in 318. The fact that it's only in IMAX helps it achieve "event" status, but I don't think that will be enough to get it over $5 million.

Oscar-bait sports movies that open in limited release are somewhat of a genre to themselves. Rush will find itself in the good company of The Fighter ($300,010 opening in four theaters, seven Oscar noms, two wins), The Wrestler ($202,714 from four theaters, two noms), and Million Dollar Baby ($179,953 from eight theaters, seven noms, four wins). With Rush opening in five theaters, an opening around half a million would bode well for both the film's commercial and Oscar prospects.

Also new this weekend:
Enough Said - four theaters;
Haute Cuisine - three;
I Spit on Your Grave 2 - one;
My Lucky Star - 23;
Thanks for Sharing - 269.

Tune in next week for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2's tête à tête (à tête) with comedies Baggage Claim and Don Jon.