Catching Fire is obviously going to dominate the box office this weekend. The only question is how wide the fire will spread. The first adaptation in the series opened a year and a half ago and scored a massive $152 million opening weekend gross from 4,137 theaters. That film is widely loved by fans and critics, and holds an 84% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Catching Fire is opening in a few more theaters and has gotten some great early reviews, both of which may help it avoid the typical drop in gross for sequels. I think it might even be able to displace Deathly Hallows Part 2 as the third highest grossing opening weekend of all time with an opening around $170 million.
On the other hand, the big loser of the weekend is definitely going to be Delivery Man. Essentially an American copy of writer/director Ken Scott's 2011 French film Starbuck, Vince Vaughn stars as a chronic underachiever who accidentally fathers 533 children via anonymous donations to a fertility clinic. I find it very odd that Scott would remake his own film after only two years with the only discernible difference (from the trailers at least) being that this one is set in America. (The first trailer is practically shot-for-shot the same as the French film's trailer.) The second thing I don't understand is why distributor Buena Vista thought it would be smart to go up against Catching Fire. They may justify it by claiming counter-programming, but hopefully they won't be too shocked when it makes no money. Vaughn's box office draw is questionable at best, with his past six wide releases opening between $10 and $35 million. This will fall on the lower end of that spectrum, if it's even lucky enough to reach $10 million.
Max Lucado's The Christmas Candle opened in five theaters last weekend to an acceptable per theater average of $13,731. Even with a slight drop in per theater average, Candle has a shot at bringing in around $4 million this weekend.
Weinstein import Philomena debuts domestically this weekend after earning $7.6 million at home in the United Kingdom. Harvey has a pretty good track record with Oscar hopefuls opening in limited release. In just the past few years he's had The King's Speech ($355,450 from four theaters), Silver Linings Playbook ($443,003 from sixteen theaters), The Artist ($204,878 from four theaters), and The Iron Lady ($220,409 from four theaters), all of which took home statues on Oscar night. Philomena's Oscar prospects aren't set in stone yet, but I do think it should have an opening weekend similar to the films mentioned above, most likely above $200,000.
Disney's decision to open Frozen a week early in a single theater may have been rather last minute, but it isn't an uncommon move for the Mouse House. Many of Disney's most successful animated films started their domestic runs in limited release, such as Toy Story 2, A Bug's Life, and Hercules in one theater; The Lion King, Aladdin, and Beauty and the Beast in two theaters; and Pocahontas in six theaters. Disney's most recent animated film to open in limited release was The Princess and the Frog, which opened to $786,190 from two theaters, but I think Frozen will open below $200,000.
Also opening this weekend:
Bettie Page Reveals All;
Gori Tere Pyaar Mein - 112 theaters;
Is the Man Who is Tall Happy? - two theaters;
Narco Cultura;
Weekend of a Champion.
Tune in next week for a busy Thanksgiving weekend featuring Black Nativity, Homefront, and Spike Lee's Oldboy in nationwide release, plus the nationwide expansion of Disney's Frozen, Philomena's expansion, and Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom's limited release.
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