So this weekend the Caretakers of the Cosmos will easily out-funk the Godfather of Soul. Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy will blast into 4,080 theaters, while James Brown biopic Get On Up will get on down to 2,466 theaters. In limited release, Fox Searchlight is bringing Irish drama Calvary to four theaters domestically.
Guardians is the fourth (but not final!) Marvel film to be released this year, but its unique combination of quirk and camp should help it overcome the superhero fatigue that possibly had a hand in this summer's drastic drop in attendance. However, Guardians has always looked like a risky move for Marvel. This is the first MCU film to be set entirely in space, without any of the major characters who have appeared in the films up to this point. Plus, the property isn't very well known outside of the hardcore comics fanbase. Disney's advertising campaign has definitely gone to great lengths to overcome these hurdles by showcasing the film's comedic elements, and I think it will pay off for the most part. But even with a well loved cast led by Chris Pratt, Bradley Cooper, Zoe Saldana, Karen Gillan, and Lee Pace, Guardians will have a hard time reaching its siblings' $90+ million opening weekends. It will make more than the $65 million made by the first Captain America and Thor films, but a gross above $80 million seems unlikely.
The only other new wide release this weekend is James Brown biopic Get On Up. Even with positive critical response, rising star Chadwick Boseman will have a hard time making much music this weekend, and that's not just due to the competition. Music biopics are notoriously hard box office sells, no matter the subjects' star power. The two highest grossing films in the sub-genre are Walk the Line and Ray, neither of which opened to more than $25 million. James Brown is certainly as much of a legend as both Johnny Cash and Ray Charles, so a similar opening weekend would be reasonable for Get On Up.
Actor Brendan Gleeson is probably most well known on this side of the pond for his performance as "Mad-Eye" Moody in the Harry Potter films, but now we get to see him as a Catholic priest trying to figure out which of his parishioners is trying to kill him. This will probably start out around $200,000 this weekend since it's only in four theaters. If it does perform well, we should expect Fox Searchlight to begin an aggressive expansion, and maybe even an Oscar campaign for Gleeson.
Lastly, A Most Wanted Man expands nationwide this weekend. It will now be in twice as many theaters, but isn't likely to double last weekend's $2.6 million gross. Hopefully it will earn around $3 or $4 million.
My top five predictions for the weekend:
Guardians of the Galaxy - $75 million.
Get On Up - $25 million.
Lucy - $20 million.
Hercules - $12.5 million.
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $7.5 million.
What is your top pick for the weekend?
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