November gets off to a busy start this weekend with three new nationwide releases, though each is vying for a different audience segment. Sci-fi adaptation
Ender's Game, based on the novel by Orson Scott Card, opens in 3,407 theaters, Thanksgiving-themed animated film
Free Birds hopes to not be a turkey in 3,736 theaters, and buddy comedy
Last Vegas goes partying into 3,065 theaters this weekend. The specialty box office continues to be busy as well, with
About Time in 175 theaters,
Diana in 38, and
Dallas Buyers Club in nine.
Orson Scott Card's
Ender's Game has long been a staple of YA science fiction literature, and now it is on its way to the theater with a great cast. Harrison Ford, Sir Ben Kingsley, Viola Davis, Hailee Steinfeld, and Agigail Breslin star, with Asa Butterfield leading the way as the titular Ender. As I've said a few times before, YA is very hit or miss at the box office. Very few series in the genre achieve the middle ground of obscurity: they either become worldwide phenomenons (
Harry Potter,
Twilight,
Hunger Games), or infamous flops (
Beautiful Creatures,
The Host,
Mortal Instruments [and those three are just from this year]). So on which side will
Ender land? The realist in me says it will open around $20 million, but I'm feeling optimistic today. So if Lionsgate manages to get the fans of the books into the theater
and draw a fair amount of those of us who somehow didn't have to read the book in high school (I'm not the only one, right?), then it could end up around $40 million.
Adult oriented comedies have performed pretty well this year, with five of them grossing over $100 million so far:
The Heat ($159 million),
We're the Millers ($148 million),
Identity Thief ($134 million),
Grown Ups 2 ($133 million), and
This is the End ($101 million). But does that mean audiences' taste for these films is insatiable?
Last Vegas will definitely test that theory. With four very famous lead actors (Morgan Freeman, Robert De Niro, Michael Douglas, Kevin Kline)
Vegas should have a nice opening weekend, but last weekend's star studded catastrophe reminded us that star power isn't always enough to set the box office ablaze. This is going to be a busy weekend and
Vegas might get lost in the shuffle since it's opening is the lightest of the three new nationwide releases. A prediction around $20 million seems to be the safest bet at the moment.
I hope that
Free Birds won't be a turkey this weekend, even though I know it won't have a feast at the box office. It has been over a month since the last animated film opened (
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 - $34 million opening weekend, $100 million domestic total so far), but a big factor going against the Thanksgiving themed film is its distance from the holiday. I think most consumers will still be hesitant to fully embrace the holiday this early. It should do decent family business for a few weeks, but will get turned into mincemeat when
Frozen opens on November 27th. I expect an opening weekend around $15 million.
The battle for dominance over the specialty box office seems to be focused on newcomer
About Time and
12 Years a Slave, which continues its march toward nationwide expansion.
12 Years expanded to 123 theaters last weekend and grossed a little over $2 million. It expands to 412 theaters this weekend, and if it holds on to a per theater average of around $15,000 it should gross around $6.2 million. For
About Time to match that gross it would need a per theater average above $35,000, which may not be possible. Universal clearly has faith in Richard Curtis' latest film, as they have already scheduled it for a nationwide expansion next weekend. Curtis is probably best known for romantic comedies
Love Actually and
Notting Hill (both of which are being heavily referenced in the film's promotional material), which brought in domestic grosses of $59 and $116 million respectively. Of the two, only
Love Actually opened in limited release before expanding nationwide (though in 576 theaters) and grossed $6.8 million. I expect
About Time to open around $4 million.
The are few public figures that are as universally beloved as the late Princess Diana. So it is understandable that any film that attempts to portray her life would be put under a lot of scrutiny. Unfortunately it seems that
Diana won't be able to hold up, at least not critically.
Rotten Tomatoes currently rates the film at an abysmal 9% based on forty-four reviews. Most critics seem to agree that Naomi Watts' performance was acceptable, but the writing and directing was not. Luckily for this film, the critics don't usually have much influence over audiences. Princess Diana's name may be enough to get people into the theater, regardless of the film's quality. If that does happen, the film could gross between $.5 and $1 million this weekend.
I definitely agree that Matthew McConaughey is having a career renaissance. After being typecast for many years in mostly bad romantic comedies, McConaughey started reinventing himself in 2011 with
The Lincoln Lawyer. He followed that film up with a very productive 2012 (
Bernie,
Magic Mike,
Killer Joe,
The Paperboy), and is getting Oscar buzz for all three of his films this year:
Mud,
Dallas Buyers Club, and
The Wolf of Wall Street. What does that mean for the box office? While McConaughey and co-star Jared Leto are getting a lot of Oscar talk, the subject matter may turn off some prospective audience members.
Buyers Club is essentially the story of a homophobic bigot from Texas who contracts HIV and tries to find a way to get unapproved drugs for himself and others, but (from what I've read) has very little character evolution. That may be the more authentic way to tell the story, but most audiences like to see characters learn a little from their experiences. With a light opening of nine theaters, I think it will have a hard time getting past $200,000 for the weekend.
Also opening this weekend:
Big Sur - thirteen theaters;
Broken Circle Breakdown;
Casting By;
Man of Tai Chi - 108 theaters;
Mr. Nobody;
A Perfect Man - two theaters;
The Pervert's Guide to Ideology;
Sal;
Sweet Dreams.
Tune in next week for the first blockbuster of the holiday season:
Thor: The Dark World, as well as
About Time's nationwide expansion, and the limited release openings of
The Book Thief and
How I Live Now.
