Weekend Preview: Don't Let Go

After wowing audiences at Venice and Telluride, Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity flies into 3,575 theaters domestically this weekend, while Ben Affleck/Justin Timberlake thriller Runner Runner tries to win big in 3,024 theaters, and Metallica Through the Never continues the fantasy after last weekend's IMAX exclusive opening by rocking audiences in 650 theaters this weekend.

Critics are already hailing Gravity as this year's Life of Pi and a frontrunner in several Oscar races. But how will it fare at the box office? The subject matter is going to be a barrier for some people, like my better half, who have no interest in putting themselves through the anxiety of watching Sandra Bullock floating stranded in space. Hopefully the prospect of seeing some of the most innovative visual effects since Avatar will help some people master their fears. I have no question that hardcore science fiction fans will show up in droves, which will launch Gravity to the top of the box office, but how high it will go is hard to say. Pi opened last November to $22 million. 2013 so far has been an okay year for original sci-fi, with Elysium and Pacific Rim opening to $29 and $37 million respectively. Without much competition, two beloved stars, and rave reviews out the wazoo, Gravity should easily open around $35 million domestically.

Ben Affleck made headlines recently by signing up for the cowl and cape in Zack Snyder's upcoming Batman and Superman movie, but will that and goodwill from his Oscar winning Argo help convince audiences to show up to see him share screen time with Justin Timberlake? Runner Runner comes to us from Brad Furman, director of 2011's decently successful The Lincoln Lawyer, which helped Matthew McConaughey re-brand himself as a serious actor. Counter-programming should also give Runner a boost, with the film hoping to snatch up those who think Gravity will be too spacey. Action thrillers haven't performed very well so far this year, with Snitch claiming the highest opening weekend with $20 million. I expect Runner to open somewhere between The Lincoln Lawyer's $13 and Argo's $19 million opening weekends, though there's no chance that Runner will have the legs to match the latter's $136 million total domestic gross.

Metallica Through the Never's IMAX exclusive opening weekend brought in $1.5 million from 305 theaters, which is pretty close to last year's Raiders of the Lost Ark IMAX re-release's $1.6 million opening weekend in 267 theaters. Metallica looks to take the show to a wider audience this week by doubling its theater count. Unfortunately, it is going to lose most of its IMAX screens to Gravity. A $3 million gross this weekend would be nice, but this film is a hard sell outside of the band's dedicated fanbase, even with good reviews.

Also opening this weekend:
A.C.O.D. - three theaters;
All is Bright - ten theaters;
Argento's Dracula 3D - six theaters;
Bad Milo!;
Besharam - 217 theaters;
Concussion;
Dislecksia: The Movie;
Grace Unplugged - 511 theaters;
The Institute;
Let the Fire Burn;
Linsanity;
Nothing to Fear - five theaters;
Parkland - 217 theaters;
Pulling Strings - 387 theaters;
Running Wild: The Life of Dayton O. Hyde;
The Summit - eight theaters.

Tune in next week to see if Tom Hanks' Captain Phillips can fight off Robert Rodriguez's Machete Kills.

Weekend Preview: Chance of Laughter

This is going to be a good weekend for fans of comedy, who have three very different films to satisfy their need for laughs. Sony's animated sequel Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 is deliverator-ed into 4,001 theaters, romantic comedy Baggage Claim flirts into 2,026 theaters, and triple hyphenated Joseph Gordon-Lovett's Don Jon saunters into 2,422 theaters. After last weekend's warm-up lap, Rush goes full throttle into 2,297 theaters this weekend. And lastly, concert movie/fantasy adventure Metallica: Through the Never warms up with a 308 theater IMAX exclusive opening weekend.

At this point it looks like Cloudy 2 should easily be the first to reach the checkered flag. The first Cloudy, which also opened on the third weekend of September, grossed $30 million its opening weekend on its way to a respectable $124 million total domestic gross. It has been over a month since Planes flew into theaters, so Cloudy 2 definitely won't have much competition. The big question is whether family audiences have forgotten how much they've already spent this year on animated sequels/prequels/spin-offs.  But Sony's well executed marketing campaign reminds us how fun the first film was while also introducing the (mostly) adorable food-imals, which should help it capitalize on the goodwill left over from the first film. With four years of ticket price inflation as icing on the cake, Cloudy 2 has a chance at scoring the highest grossing September opening of all time, though a gross between $35 and $40 million is most likely.

Ron Howard's Rush earned an decent $200,000 last weekend from only five theaters. With rave reviews coming out of Toronto and its limited opening, this weekend could be a big win for Formula 1 fans.  The biggest challenge for the film is genre limitations. The sports drama genre has produced some hits, including seven with grosses over $100 million. However, it is crucial to look at which sports are scoring big at the box office. Of the top fifteen films in the genre, seven are about boxing, three football, three baseball, and one horse racing. Car racing has scored some major hits itself outside of the sports drama genre, but those are mostly constrained to the Cars and The Fast and the Furious franchises. What does this mean for Rush? For a sports drama film to be successful it must court more than just the fans of the specific sport. The filmmaker must bring stories and characters that will resonate with general audiences as well. I think Howard has achieved that, which should help Rush bring in $20 million this weekend.

Coming out of blockbuster season, there haven't been many romantic comedies in national release. The most recent is probably The Big Wedding which opened with $7 million back in April and ended its domestic run with $21 million. Baggage Claim looks to follow previous comedies Think Like a Man and Jumping the Broom, two comedies with predominantly black casts that turned very low budgets ($12 and $6.6 million) into box office wins ($91 and $37 million). Baggage will probably end up above Jumping's $15 million opening weekend, but nowhere near Think's $33 million.

While Don Jon is also technically a romantic comedy, its target audience seems a little harder to pin down than Baggage's. Some audiences will definitely be turned off by the porn angle, though those who enjoyed JGL's more actiony roles may be turned off by the romantic comedy label. However, there are always audiences looking for smart, funny, original films, and JGL's directorial debut seems to fit the bill. I expect it to gross around $15 million, which would be a respectable opening. More importantly, Don Jon needs to get good word-of-mouth coming out of its opening weekend if it hopes to hold well while the box office continues focusing on more adult fare.

Metallica brings us a film this weekend that sounds like it could be the most unique release of the month. Co-written, co-produced, and co-starring the band members, Through the Never tells the story of a roadie who has a surreal adventure during one of the band's shows. This seems to be much more like a feature length music video rather than your average music concert film, so it wouldn't really make sense to try to predict its opening weekend gross by comparing it to One Direction and Justin Bieber's concert movies. Hopefully the film's IMAX exclusive opening should help it achieve "event" status, which could bring its opening gross above $5 million despite its low theater count.

Also opening this weekend:
Antoine and Antoinette - one theater;
Hotel Normandy - one theater;
Inequality for All;
Morning - four theaters;
Muscle Shoals;
On the Job;
Shepard and Dark;
Therese;
We Are What We Are - two theaters;
The Wicker Man - Final Cut - one theater;
Wild Style: 30th Anniversary.

Tune in next week for a thrilling stand off between Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity and Ben Affleck vehicle Runner Runner.