The Hobbit is going to rule the weekend. With the first movie in the trilogy not as universally loved as Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings trilogy, it's a little unclear if Desolation will suffer a little in its opening weekend. The will probably be some people that wait to see if this one is better than the first, and of course there will be those who were so put off by the 3D high frame rate that they're going to wait until the movie hits Netflix. But I think they are going to be in the minority. I already have my tickets for the double feature in IMAX 3D, and I know that I'm not the only one. An Unexpected Journey set a Middle Earth record when it opened to $84.6 million domestically, but its $303 million final gross fell short of all three LOTR films. If Desolation sees a typical sequel decline, it should open no higher than $80 million. I'm still holding onto the hope that it has a shot at $90 million.
As for Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas, my expectations are much lower. Madea has made a lot of money for Perry (she stars in his three highest grossing films), but her last two films both opened to $25 million, much lower than her best outing: Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail which opened to $41 million. Perry's name also seems to be faltering, as evidenced by Tyler Perry Presents Peeples' $9 million total domestic gross. He merely "produced" that film though, so it shouldn't do too much damage to his return as his most popular character. The film definitely won't break any records, but it should be able to match Madea's last two $25 million outings.
Mary Poppins is one of the most beloved films of all time. The story of its journey from book to screen, starring Tom Hanks as Walt Disney and Emma Thompson as P. L. Travers seems to be a match made in Oscar heaven. It may even get close to being as heartwarming and beloved as Mary Poppins. The film has been getting a little early awards recognition (though not as much as this weekend's other awards contender), with Thompson receiving nominations for the SAG Awards and the Golden Globes. I think the film should have a shot at reaching $1 million from its fifteen theaters this weekend before expanding nationwide.
American Hustle on the other hand scored seven Golden Globe nominations, for best picture, director, screenplay, and all four acting categories. If Hustle continues the trend set by director David O. Russell's last two films, Silver Linings Playbook and The Fighter, then it may steal close to half a million this weekend on its way to over $100 million domestically and Oscar gold.
Also opening this weekend:
Afternoon of a Faun - one theater;
Here Comes the Devil;
Liv & Ingmar;
Nuclear Nation.
Tune in next week for new releases Anchorman: The Legend Continues, Walking with Dinosaurs, and in limited release Her, plus expansions for American Hustle, Inside Llewyn Davis, and Saving Mr. Banks.
