August 2013 Preview!

Here is a quick look at the films I plan to see in August:

2 Guns (8/2/13)
Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg star as undercover intelligence agents investigating each other, as well as stealing from the mob together. (And maybe also getting set up by the CIA?) Costars include Edward James Olmos, Paula Patton, James Marsden, and Bill Paxton.

Europa Report (8/2/13)
The search for evidence of life on Jupiter's moon has dangerous repercussions for the mission's crew, and possibly all of humanity. For an independent found-footage science fiction thriller, this definitely has a shot at being my second favorite sci-fi film of the year. (The first is Star Trek Into Darkness, duh...)

Elysium (8/9/13)
Heady, super political science fiction from the mind that brought us District Nine. I just hope the sociopolitical aspects of the film are subtle enough that it doesn't feel like Blomkamp is beating the audience in the head with all of the Oscars the film is going to win.

Kick-Ass 2 (8/16/13)
The first movie was awesome, so this one has to also be awesome. Right? Right. Just be prepared for even more gore, foul language, and general insanity than the first one.

Paranoia (8/16/13)
Gary Oldman and Harrison Ford are rival tech billionaires willing to kill to outsmart each other, with the brother of Thor trapped in the middle (and no I'm not talking about Hiddles.) Someone seriously needs to give those two men their own Oscars.

The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones (8/23/13)
I haven't read the books, but the Misses has.

The World's End (8/23/13)
The epic conclusion to Simon Pegg, Nick Frost, and Edgar Wright's Three Flavours Cornetto Trilogy. If that isn't enough to get you into the theater, then I consider you a lost cause. Or possibly a robot.

Which films will you rush to the theater for this month, and which are you going to save for the no-man's-land of September?

Weekend Preview: Wolverine is Back

This weekend marks the fifth time that Hugh Jackman has donned the adamantium claws to turn his box office foes into mince meat. Also: indie hit The Way, Way Back is set to expand nationwide into 886 theaters, and Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine opens in six theaters.

So obviously The Wolverine is going to take first place this weekend. It has no competition from new nationwide releases, and last weekend's winner The Conjuring should see a sharp second weekend decline despite good reviews. The mutant anti-hero's last outing made $85 million in its opening weekend but didn't make much of a splash critically. Wolverine has always been one of the most popular X-Men characters, so Fox shouldn't have any trouble getting comics fans into the theater. The real question is whether four years is enough time for general audiences to be interested in seeing another standalone film. If general audiences bite, The Wolverine could end up around $70 million for the weekend. If not, I would expect this to become the worst opening X-Men film with around $50 million.

After grossing over $5 million in limited release, Sundance darling The Way, Way Back expands nationwide this weekend. Fox Searchlight has marketed it as "A new comedy from the studio that brought you Little Miss Sunshine and Juno," clearly in the hopes of duplicating their box office successes. However both of those opened to much higher per theater averages in limited release: $52,999 for Sunshine and $59,124 for Juno, while Way Back opened to only $29,094. Sunshine went on to earn $5.6 million in its first weekend in wide release and Juno earned $10.6 million. So $5 million will probably be the upper limit for Way Back this weekend.

Two years ago Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris opened in six theaters to $599,003 on its way to a record high gross for the writer/actor/director ($56.8 million) and an Oscar win for Original Screenplay. After Allen's To Rome with Love fell flat critically and at the box office, he is definitely looking to reverse that trend with Blue Jasmine. If successful, he could score himself a couple more Oscar nominations as well as one for lead actress Cate Blanchett. An opening weekend above half a million will definitely help their chances.

Are you traveling to Japan with Hugh Jackman this weekend or sticking with something a little closer to home?

Tune in next week for another round of ridiculous with The Smurfs 2 and some Denzel Washington/Mark Wahlberg action in 2 Guns.

July 2013 Preview!

Here is a quick look at the films I plan to see in July:

Despicable Me 2 (7/3/13)
Despicable Me was easily one of my favorite films of 2010, so though I may be suffering from some sequel fatigue, that won't be a problem this weekend.

The Lone Ranger (7/3/13)
Hopefully, for Gore Verbinski and Jerry Bruckheimer's sakes, this film lives up to the expectations for it to be the next Pirates of the Caribbean. Otherwise, I have a feeling that Disney isn't going to be so happy about the estimated $250 million they shelled out for the film.

Pacific Rim (7/12/13)
Guillermo del Toro + trans-dimensional sea monsters + giant robots. What more could you need?

Red 2 (7/19/13)
This is just about the only sequel to a film that killed Morgan Freeman that I would be willing to see.

How to you plan to sit out the rest of the summer heat: relaxing at home with a cold one or at the theater?

Weekend Preview: White Hot? Maybe Not

It looks like the hottest kids on the block this weekend are neither FBI agents nor Secret Service applicants: they are once again a pair of lovable monsters. The battle for second place should be a little more heated, with Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy in The Heat competing against Channing Tatum and Jamie Foxx in White House Down.

Monsters University easily became Pixar's second highest opening film ever (behind Toy Story 3) with an $82 million opening weekend. Even with positive audience responses, the prequel has no chance of getting close to Monsters, Inc.'s second weekend decline of 27.2%. A second weekend gross around $50 million is most likely, which should keep it on track toward matching its predecessor's final domestic gross of $255 million.

My pick for second place is, surprisingly, White House Down. I'm getting tired of Roland Emmerich's fixation on destroying the White House, but he has somehow manage to keep making money doing it. Though they were used heavily in Sony's ad campaign, White House Down won't reach the opening grosses of Independence Day ($50 million), The Day After Tomorrow ($68 million), or 2012 ($65 million). An opening in the upper thirty millions seems most likely at this point.

As for The Heat, the best comparisons are probably McCarthy's recent hits Identity Thief and Bridesmaids. An opening weekend between that of those two films ($34 million and $26 million, respectively) would be a decent start for the $43 million production.

Tune in next week for some Fourth of July fireworks as Despicable Me 2 and The Lone Ranger battle for first place, Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain opens nationwide, and Fox Searchlight's The Way, Way Back opens in limited release.

Weekend Preview: The Scare Games

This weekend's Scare Games pits the prequel to a beloved Pixar film against Brad Pitt's adaptation of the seminal work on fake zombie apocalypse history. Caught in the middle (again) is crime comedy The Bling Ring which expands nationwide this weekend.

Mike and Sully shouldn't have a very hard time outrunning some zombies on their way to the top of the box office. Twelve years ago this adorable pair of monsters scored an opening weekend of $62 million, squashing John Travolta and Jason Statham. They should be at least be able to recreate that success against Brad Pitt, though they might have a hard time reaching $70 million if audiences agree with the critics who are saying the film is more like Cars 2 than Toy Story 2. Since Monsters Inc.'s release, all but two of Pixar's nine releases have opened between $60 and $70 million. (Ratatouille opened to $47 million, Toy Story 3 opened to $110 million.) There may come a time when Pixar breaks out of that pattern, but Monsters University won't be the film to get them through the glass ceiling.

It really makes me sad to concede that World War Z isn't going to do as well at the box office as I would like it to. Along with the issues I mentioned in my June preview, the main reason I don't think it will do well this weekend is one that plagues many films: it can't decide who its main audience is. It looses hardcore horror fans by skipping the usual zombie gore in order to fit in a PG13 rating, but it won't be stealing many families from Pixar. Critics complain about it being too episodic, but Max Brooks fans will be disappointed by the total lack of faithfulness to the source material. Pitt's chances of reaching $50 million this weekend are pretty slim, but hey, so is surviving the zombie apocalypse and we know he was able to do that. So anything's possible.

Last weekend The Bling Ring stole $214,395 from five theaters. By Thursday it will pass $300,000 which should be a good launching pad for its nationwide expansion into around 650 theaters. It might have a shot at reaching $2 million, but $1 million seems like a safer guess at the moment.

Do you plan to spend the weekend pledging Oozma Kappa, or are you packing your survival kit and sharpening your lobo?

Tune in next week to see which is more laughable: Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy as cops in The Heat or Roland Emmerich's latest plot to destroy the White House in White House Down.