Weekend Preview: Cobra Strikes

The last weekend of March is definitely going to be a busy one. After being pushed back from its original June 2012 release for reshoots and a 3D conversion, G.I. Joe: Retaliation is finally making it to theaters on Thursday. Opening in wide release on Friday are Stephenie Meyer's The Host and Tyler Perry's Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor. In limited release, Ryan Gosling will ride into four theaters this weekend in the epic crime drama The Place Beyond the Pines.

I think it's a safe bet to say that Retaliation will be the highest grossing film this weekend. Back in 2009, Hasbro's first film in this franchise, G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra battled its way to first place with an opening weekend of $54.7 million. Considering that film's terrible reviews and the controversy around Retaliation's pushed back release date, I think it will have a hard time matching its predecessor's opening weekend gross. However, it may profit from opening on Thursday and the expansion of Channing Tatum's role in the film, so a four-day opening weekend gross around $50 million is possible.

If The Host performs similarly to other recent young adult novel adaptations, it will either be a major disappointment like City of Ember ($3 million opening weekend), Beautiful Creatures ($7.5 million opening weekend), and I Am Number Four ($19 million opening weekend), or it will make an obscene amount of money a la the Hunger Games, Twilight, and Harry Potter franchises. I doubt it will fall on either extreme of the spectrum, though Meyers' fans will definitely be a major factor of its potential success. My prediction is that Meyers' aliens will possess second place with an opening weekend around $30 million. Lastly, Temptation is probably going to have a hard time reaching much of an audience this weekend. Historically, Tyler Perry's most successful films are his comedies about Madea. Since this is neither a comedy nor about Madea, I expect it to land on the lower end of Perry's opening weekends. Tyler Perry's Good Deeds opened to $15.5 million in February 2012, and that is a safe bet for Temptation's opening weekend.

With Ryan Gosling's recent announcement of his intent to take a break from acting, The Place Beyond the Pines is easily the highest profile limited release for this weekend. The film is currently rated as 86% 75% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, so it shouldn't have much trouble drawing in a large enough audience for an opening weekend around $250,000.

Excited about G.I. Joe's return to the big screen? Or do you prefer ambitious crime dramas? I'll definitely be at the movies this weekend, though I probably won't actually get to see any of the new releases...

Tune in next weekend to find out if Sam Raimi's horror remake Evil Dead will be any match for Jurassic Park 3D.