Weekend Preview: The Wizard Must Fall

Oz is definitely going to lose the throne this weekend, but the million dollar question is: to whom? This weekend's three new nationwide releases are each vying for a different segment of Oz's audience. For the families there is The Croods, for those looking for some laughs there is Tina Fey's Admission, and for those looking for some thrilling action there is Gerard Butler's Olympus Has Fallen. Two films previously in limited release are expanding this weekend: last weekend's Spring Breakers will spread the party into around 1000 theaters, while last December's Kristen Stewart vehicle On the Road will hit the highway out to 37 theaters.

Though it doesn't sound likely for Oz to give up first place to another family oriented movie, I think that the fact that it is only the second animated film of the year will push Fox's The Croods ahead of the rest of the pack. Back in 2002 Fox released a somewhat similar film called Ice Age to an opening weekend of $46 million. I doubt The Croods will replicate that gross, but an opening close to $40 million would definitely be a win for Fox. Admission and Olympus Has Fallen are a little more difficult to predict. Both could easily reach the mid-$20's unless they don't hold well through the weekend. I would predict Olympus to have the higher gross though, due to a more effective marketing campaign.

Spring Breakers is going to be another wildcard at the box office this weekend. James Franco's crime drama made $263,002 last weekend in only three theaters, for an impressive per theater average of $87,667. (For comparison, Oz had a per theater average of $10,545 last weekend.) If Spring Breakers is able to hold onto a fourth of its opening weekend per theater average, it will be set for a weekend gross around $20 million.

The other film set to expand this weekend is On the Road, last year's adaptation of Jack Kerouac's novel of the same name. The film has already made $154,250, so a gross around half a million for this weekend would definitely make the film's producers feel better about the $25 million they spent making it.

My choice to see this weekend is definitely Olympus Has Fallen. What's yours? Who do you think will win the box office?

Tune in next week for the showdown of the long-awaited G.I. Joe: Retaliation, Stephenie Meyer's The Host, and Tyler Perry's Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor.