This Weekend Preview is Brought to You by the Number 2

Well it looks like the little blue guys are going to put up a decent fight against Denzel and Marky Mark this weekend. The Smurfs 2 la la la-ed its way into around 3,800 theaters on Wednesday, while 2 Guns won't start its heist until Friday in just over three thousand theaters. In limited release, sci-fi thriller Europa Report opens this weekend in three theaters.

After a couple of weeks of clear cut winners, this weekend finally offers a challenge to predict. I think (and hope) that 2 Guns will win the weekend. Early reviews hail it as a fun, fast paced, buddy action film with two very likeable stars. If it opens like some of Washington's recent successes (Safe House: $40 million, The Book of Eli: $32, American Gangster: $43) then it has a definite shot at winning the weekend. But if it opens like director Baltasar Kormakur and Wahlberg's last pairing, Contraband ($24 million), then its chances are a bit slimmer. My prediction is an opening weekend around $40 million.

As for The Smurfs 2, its arrival in theaters will be almost exactly two years after the first one earned a decent $35 million opening weekend. (Domestically it only made a $30 million profit against its $110 production budget, but the two sequels were scheduled so quickly because it made $400 million overseas.) While comparing reviews from the two Smurfs films, it is painfully obvious that Sony has repeated a lot of their mistakes this time around. Most importantly: they made a children's movie that is only really enjoyable for the children. Despicable Me 2 didn't make $300 million so far domestically by entertaining the kids but insulting everybody else who happens to be in the theater. So if Sony ever wants the Smurfs to reach that level of success, they first must learn that children can't drive themselves to the theater. < /rant> So considering that this is basically another round of the same old Smurf antics and that its Wednesday opening only brought in $5 million, I predict an opening weekend (3-day) gross around $25 million, and a five day start below $40 million.

I'm very excited to see Europa Report, so it's a little disappointing that it is starting in only three theaters. Hopefully it will pick up some good word of mouth and get a wider release soon.   Considering its light release, I would be surprised if it makes more than $100,000 this weekend.  But an opening close to that would probably be a good sign of a wider release to come.

Tune in next week for an epic four-way battle between Elysium, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, Planes, and We're the Millers.