Morgan Spurlock became one of the few household names in documentary filmmaking after releasing his Oscar nominated documentary Super Size Me, which is also his highest grossing film with $11.5 million. This is Us should easily overtake that number, though a musician's popularity doesn't always translate into their ability to bring audiences into the theater. Of the past six concert movies to be released nationwide, only three can be considered successes. Justin Beiber: Never Say Never ($73 million), Michael Jackson's This Is It ($72 million), and Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour ($65 million) all did good business domestically, while Katy Perry: Part of Me ($25 million), Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience ($19 million), and Glee The 3D Concert Movie ($11 million) all disappointed at the box office. The British boy band has no trouble drawing thousands to their concerts, but will those fans also invade movie theaters this weekend? I think so. This is Us probably won't break Miley Cyrus' concert movie opening weekend record of $31 million, but it should definitely end up around $20 million.
Ethan Hawke probably won't be quite so lucky, with Getaway likely to stall right out of the gate. Hawke has done well so far this year with indie hit Before Midnight and thriller The Purge. His pairing with ex-Disney kid Selena Gomez is questionable at best, as is her attempt (starting with this year's Spring Breakers) to brand herself as a more "mature" actress. Even with a release above two thousand theaters, Getaway will have a hard time gaining enough traction to get past $10 million this weekend.
Fellow late-summer thriller Closed Circuit seems to also be set up for failure this weekend. Focus Features brings the Eric Bana picture to domestic audiences on Wednesday, but won't draw too much attention. Opening in only 870 theaters shows a lack of confidence in its domestic prospects, while mixed reviews will hinder it worldwide despite its topical plot and well established cast (Bana, Rebecca Hall, Jim Broadbent, Julia Stiles, Ciaran Hinds). I expect this one to end up around $5 million through its five day opening.
Weinstein didn't make much of a dent in the box office last weekend with The Grandmaster, which opened to $132,617 from seven theaters. But if the Chinese import can hold on to even a quarter of its $19,000 per theater average, then it should earn around $3 million this weekend.
Passion marks director Brian de Palma's first film in six years, since 2007's Redacted, and is definitely a "De Palma" film a la Carrie, Dressed to Kill, and Body Double. These films are not for everyone, since De Palma's mysteries can be both sexually perverse and gruesome, often at the same time. However, many critics have described his mastery of suspense second only to Hitchcock. Redacted opened with a per theater average of $1,708, but stars Rachel McAdams and Noomi Rapace should help Passion open above that number. The film's theater count hasn't been released yet (as of Thursday afternoon) but I expect it to have an opening weekend around $100,000.
Tune in next week to see how much fight is left in Vin Diesel's Riddick.
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