Weekend Preview: Can Nolan Save Superman?

Well it seems like I have missed a couple weeks...I guess I should have expected that after starting a new job and moving to a new town. Still no internet in the new apartment, so this post is brought to you by the generously free Wi-Fi provided by the inventors of the chicken sandwich.

But you're not here to listen to me blab about that, you want to know how much I think Man of Steel will make this weekend. In a word: beaucoup. For those of you who are already tired of this year's super hero madness, disaster comedy This is the End opened on Wednesday, while Sofia Coppola's crime comedy The Bling Ring is set to steal from five theaters on Friday and Richard Linklater's Sundance darling Before Midnight expands nationwide.

It doesn't take a crystal ball to know that Superman is going to easily win the weekend. The only question is whether the reboot is going to be successful enough to keep up with the new super hero big leaguers: Iron Man, Nolan's Batman trilogy, Raimi's high-grossing yet critically panned Spider-Man trilogy, and of course the king of all super hero films: The Avengers. The highest grossing Superman film so far is Superman Returns which grossed $200 million back in 2006. Considering that Man of Steel cost $225 million to make, there will be a lot of disappointed Warner Bros. executives if this doesn't out-gross its predecessors. As for its opening weekend, a gross north of $100 million would prove that Kal-El's seven year big screen hiatus (and nineteen year hiatus before that) wasn't long enough for him to be overshadowed by Tony Stark and Peter Parker. Unfortunately, I see an opening weekend around $90 million as a more likely outcome.

Seth Rogen's This is the End got off to a good start by grossing $7.8 million on Wednesday on its way toward a five-day start around $30 million. That number would align The End nicely with the opening weekends of some of Rogen's more successful outings, such as Superbad ($33 million), Knocked Up ($30 million), and Pineapple Express ($23 million).

Through three weeks in no more than fifty theaters, Before Midnight has so far grossed close to $1.5 million. The film's two predecessors (Before Sunrise, and Before Sunset) grossed $5.5 and $5.8 million respectively, though neither reached more than 500 theaters. Sony Classics plans to expand Midnight to almost 900 theaters on Friday with the hope that it will be the weekend's top counter-programming choice. If that happens, a weekend gross between $2.5 and $5 million is a possibility.

Lastly, Emma Watson tries on a very different role than the one we've grown used to seeing her in. The Bling Ring sees her as a member of the infamous crime group with the same name that robbed the homes of celebrities such as Paris Hilton, Megan Fox, Lindsay Lohan, and Orlando Bloom. Critical response has been varied since its premiere at Cannes, but everybody knows that usually doesn't affect box office grosses too much. Public interest surrounding Watson's involvement by itself could help the film bleed half a million from audiences this weekend, though it would take an act of Dumbledore himself to get it much higher than that. And if exit polling is as varied as the film's critical response, I expect the film to have a hard time recouping its $8 million production budget.

Do you already have tickets for tonight's midnight release of Man of Steel or are you waiting for the Sunday afternoon doldrums to set in before journeying to the movie theater?

Tune in next week to see if Mike, Sully, and their fellow students from Monsters University can win the Scare Games against World War Z.

June 2013 Preview!

Here is a quick look at the films I plan to see in June:

Much Ado About Nothing (6/7/13)
Joss Whedon's self-financed Shakespearean-reading-turned-film, aka "vacation from The Avengers." Even those who find Shakespeare a little too foreign should enjoy the addition of Whedon's panache to the Bard's work.

Violet & Daisy (6/7/13)
S. Ronan easily became one of my favorite young actors after her performance in Hanna. I can't wait to see her take on what looks to be an equally badd-ass role.

This is the End (6/12/13)
Seth Rogen, Jay Baruchel, and a host of other actors portraying fictional versions of themselves have a party at James Franco's house interrupted by the end of days. This should be good for a few laughs as long as Rogen doesn't laugh in the film and Franco doesn't try to be serious.

Man of Steel (6/14/13)
Directed by Zack Snyder and produced by Christopher Nolan. I smell DC trying to build its own Avengers...not that that's going to stop me from seeing this or any other movies that may or may not be about Justice League members.

Monsters University (6/21/13)
The long-awaited prequel to one of Pixar's most beloved films. It isn't my favorite of Pixar's oeuvre (nor their film most deserving of another round in the theater, in my opinion), but, what the heck, can't say no to the Pixar gods.

World War Z (6/21/13)
I have read Max Brooks' novel on which this film is based at least a hundred times. So when I first heard that it was being adapted into a film I was super excited. Fast forward a couple of years, an odd choice of director, massive production difficulties, extensive rewrites during production (including an attempt at a complete third act rewrite by Damon Lindeloff and then Drew Goddard), and a lead actor/director dispute almost as epic as the events in the book, and the chances of the finished product being anywhere as good as the source material are almost as low as the chances of this sentence making sense. I'm still going to see it though.

White House Down (6/28/13)
Of all the films on this list, this is the maybe-est of the maybes, if for no other reason than the fact that I really don't like Channing Tatum and I think Roland Emmerich is a bit of a nut. But hey, it can't be worse than 2012, right? And that second trailer actually made it look enjoyable.

Which films are you most excited about for June?

Weekend Preview: Into Darkness

For the second time this month only one new film is being released nationwide for the weekend, because nobody is dumb enough to try to compete with the sequel to J.J. Abrams' wildly successful 2009 Star Trek reboot.

Star Trek Into Darkness beams into around 3,800 theaters, starting with tonight's limited engagement Fan Sneaks, and will have no trouble becoming the box office's flagship for the weekend. Three years ago Chris Pine led the crew of the Enterprise to the franchise's highest grossing opening weekend by earning $75 million domestically. Three years of anticipation and the intrigue surrounding Benidict Cumberbatch's villain should help propel Into Darkness above $100 million for its five day opening (Wednesday through Sunday), though the fanboy in me wants to make a prediction closer to $150 million for that time frame. Either way, I don't think the sequel should have any trouble reaching its predecessor's $257 million final domestic gross, and it may even end up closer to $300 million.

As for the old releases, Iron Man 3 should earn around $35 million this weekend if it continues to hold similarly to Iron Man 2. This would bring the domestic gross of Stark's third outing to around $340 million, while its worldwide gross will probably already have surpassed $1 billion, making it the sixteenth film to ever reach that milestone. Gatsby should hold onto its audience better than Iron Man since not as many of them will be flocking to see Into Darkness, but with very mixed audience and critical responses it could see more than a fifty percent drop from last weekend. But even if it only makes $20 million this weekend, its total domestic gross should still be close to double Luhrmann's previously highest grossing film. And as for poor old Peeples, well people was definitely something it had a hard time attracting. With less than $5 million as of May 13, I doubt it will even be able to reach $2.5 million for its second weekend.

So is anybody else seeing Star Trek Into Darkness tonight? I'm seeing it at 11 PM in IMAX 3D, so I'm sure some related posts should pop up on my tumblr blog and on my twitter account.

Tune in next week for a proper Memorial Day battle between established franchise films Fast & Furious 6 and The Hangover Part 3, as well as Blue Sky's newest animated adventure Epic.

Weekend Preview: Stark vs Gatsby

Iron Man 3 exceeded expectations last weekend by earning $174 million and claiming the second highest grossing weekend of all time. The question this week is whether Baz Luhrmann's Jazz Age millionaire can compete against the beloved "genius, billionaire, playboy, philanthropist." Tyler Perry Presents Peeples also hits the big screen this weekend, but I would imagine most of the partying will be in the other auditoriums. And Matthew McConaughey's well-performing Mud expands nationwide to 853 theaters.

Though anticipation is high for Gatsby, I don't see it being high enough to outperform Iron Man, or even get close unfortunately. Iron Man should see around a fifty percent drop in gross from last weekend, which would still put it above $80 million for this weekend. To contrast, Luhrmann's best opening weekend so far was Australia's $14.8 million. I do believe Gatsby should have a chance at doubling that number, but anything above $40 million is probably out of reach. Hopefully foreign audiences are also willing to shell out for the razzle dazzle, or else Luhrmann is going to have a hard time paying for this $127 million party.

Tyler Perry is back again this weekend for his second outing of the year, though he probably only paid to have his name slapped in front of this ones title. From writer/director Tina Gordon Chism, Peeples will court around two thousand theaters this weekend. Peeples' synopsis brings to mind 2000's Meet the Parents, though I doubt even Tyler Perry's name will be enough to match that film's $28.6 million opening weekend. His comedies always fare better than his dramas though, so an opening weekend in the low-twenties shouldn't be out of reach.

Lastly, Matthew McConaughey's Mud is set to expand nationwide this weekend after having grossed $5 million through ten days of limited release. It should easily match that this weekend on its way to a $15-$20 million final haul.

Are you in line for Gatsby's glittering glamor, or would you rather just see Iron Man again? I'm going to be in the theater a lot this week and next: I'm seeing Iron Man tonight, Gatsby on Monday, and then Star Trek Into Darkness on Wednesday.

Tune in next week for Star Trek, because it's Star Trek. (And if you don't, I'll summon JJ to sacrifice your pet goldfish to the ghost of Gene Roddenberry.)

Weekend Preview: Iron Man

I have a feeling that Iron Man 3 is going to be the highest grossing film this weekend, but I'm not really sure why. I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

Back in 2008, the first Iron Man opened to an impressive $98 million domestically on its way to a $318 million total gross. Two years later Iron Man 2 opened to an even more impressive $128 million, but its less-than-strllar critical response prevented it from surpassing its predecessor's total gross: it closed with a $312 million total domestic gross.

Three more years have passed, and Tony Stark is back again to kick off Marvel's Phase Two, and he's going to do it with a bang. I expect Iron Man should have an easy time reaching $150 million this weekend. It may even have a chance at passing Deathly Hallows Part 2's opening weekend gross of $169 million to become the second highest opening weekend of all time, behind The Avengers's $207 million.

Are you planning to see Iron Man's third outing this weekend? Don't tell me what happens because I can't see it until Thursday...

Tune in next week to be transported back to the Jazz Age in Baz Luhrmann's The Great Gatsby.