Weekend Preview: Bad in Blue

Ridley Scott shouldn't have a hard time conquering the box office this weekend with his drug trafficking thriller The Counselor litigating its way into 3,044 theaters this weekend. It won't see much competition from Bad Grandpa, MTV's latest Jackass installment, which brings its dumb antics into 3,336 theaters. Palme d'Or winner Blue is the Warmest Color also starts its domestic run this weekend in four theaters.

Early reviews are calling The Counselor intense and unapologetically violent. That didn't hurt The Family too much: Luc Besson's mob action comedy has earned $36 million so far, making it his highest domestic grossing directorial effort since The Fifth Element. As for Scott, six of the ten films that he has directed in the past thirteen years have earned more than $100 million domestically. The best comparison to Counselor out of those films is probably American Gangster, which opened to $43 million domestically and went on to earn $130 million. I don't think Counselor will do quite that well, but it should dethrone Gravity with an opening above $30 million.

Bad Grandpa is MTV's fourth Jackass film, but I don't expect it to continue the series' box office trajectory. Jackass: The Movie opened back in 2002 and grossed $22/$64 million domestically. Jackass: Number Two followed four years later and grossed $29/$72 million, and after four more years came Jackass 3-D which grossed $50/$117 million. I think Grandpa will fall behind all of its predecessors with an opening around $20 million.

Blue is the Warmest Color may have awed Steven Spielberg enough for his Cannes jury to award the Palme d'Or to director Abdellatif Kechiche and lead actresses Léa Seydoux and Adèle Exarchopoulos, but that isn't usually enough to get mainstream domestic audiences into the theater. Out of the past ten Palme d'Or winners, only two have grossed more than $10 million domestically: 2011's The Tree of Life ($13 million) and 2004's Fahrenheit 911 ($119 million). The film's NC-17 rating makes it even more inaccessible (and/or unappealing) to mainstream audiences. Showgirls holds the record for highest grossing NC-17 rated film with $20 million domestically. Blue definitely won't get close to that number, but I do think it should play well at the theaters brave enough to show it. There should be enough interest for a per theater average between $75,000 and $100,000 which would put the film's opening weekend gross around $350,000. Beyond this weekend, the film should eventually get a modest nationwide release but will be lucky to earn more than $10 million.

Also opening this weekend:
Bastards;
Capital - two theaters;
Caucus;
Spinning Plates - three theaters;
The Square.

Tune in next week as Ender's Game, Free Birds, and Last Vegas battle for nationwide dominance, while About Time, Dallas Buyers Club, and Diana take on the specialty box office.