Carrie shouldn't have any trouble scoring the highest opening this weekend, but can it disrupt Gravity's two week streak? The original film adaptation of Stephen King's novel grossed around $33.8 million back in 1976, or almost $130 million when adjusted to account for ticket price inflation. When it comes to horror remakes, some films are able to reap the benefits of enticing new audiences without alienating fans of the original, such as 2003's The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, 2009's Friday the 13th, 2010's A Nightmare on Elm Street, and this year's Evil Dead. Each of these opened above $20 million and went on to gross at least $50 million domestically. Then there are the remakes like 2011's The Thing and Fright Night, which both grossed less than their originals even without adjusting for ticket price inflation. As for Carrie, I expect it to follow the former list of films with an opening above $20 million. Unfortunately, that will probably still fall below Gravity, which declined 22.6% last weekend to $43 million. A decline of 30% this weekend would keep its gross above $30 million, which is definitely possible.
If geriatric action stars can't be successful on their own, then the obvious solution is to put them in a movie together, right? This may have worked for The Expendables, but that success hasn't bled into these stars' subsequent solo films. Both Stallone and Schwarzenegger have already had big action flops this year, with Bullet to the Head flatlining at $9.4 million and The Last Stand falling through with only $12 million domestically. Escape Plan should open above those films, but I expect it to walk away with less than $10 million.
As for The Fifth Estate, despite your feelings about Benedict Cumberbatch or your stand on the film's quality or accuracy, it is hard to deny the general lack of interest surrounding it. Conspiracy thrillers have already had a bad year, with Eric Bana's Closed Circuit grossing a meager $5 million domestically. The founding of WikiLeaks should make for a more interesting story than a market bombing, but the debate is still whether general domestic audiences really care. My expectation is that most don't, which makes this an extremely hard sell, even with two very in-demand (and Oscar hopeful) stars. The Fifth Estate's coffers will stay mostly empty this weekend, with a $5 million domestic opening.
On the limited release front, Oscar frontrunner 12 Years a Slave looks to add a box office win to its growing list of accomplishments. Director Steve McQueen's last film, 2011's Shame, opened to $349,519 from ten theaters. That film had its share of accolades and controversies, but was severely limited at the domestic box office by its NC-17 rating. Given 12 Years' near universal acclaim, I wouldn't be surprised by an opening weekend theater average around $100,000 (similar to fellow Fox Searchlight release and Oscar contender The Tree of Life). That would put the film at a $1.8 million opening weekend, which is almost half of Shame's total domestic gross.
All is Lost is Robert Redford's second film this year (and only his eighth this millennium), and his performance is being hailed as one of the best of the year, if not of his career. The film played very well at Cannes, where the audience was quite enamored with Redford's solo performance. His Oscar frontrunner status should help the film earn at least a $50,000 per theater average for an opening weekend around $300,000.
Though the least Oscar-hopeful of these three new releases, Kill Your Darlings has the distinction of being Daniel Radcliffe's next step in his growth since graduating from Hogwarts (not that he has any reason to distance himself from the franchise that made him a millionaire). First came his controversial stint in the play Equus and then he starred in last year's respectable horror hit The Woman in Black. In Darlings he portrays the poet Allen Ginsberg and is stirring up the controversy again with his sex scene with co-star Dane DeHaan. Unfortunately that may not be enough to keep the film from being murdered by the rest of this weekend's new releases. I wouldn't be surprised if it opens to a per theater average below $20,000 for an opening weekend around $80,000.
Also opening this weekend:
2 Jacks;
American Promise;
Big Ass Spider!;
Birth of the Living Dead;
Boss - 103 theaters;
BoyBand;
The Human Scale;
I'm In Love With a Church Girl - 457 theaters;
The Snitch Cartel;
Torn.
Tune in next week for Ridley Scott's The Counselor, MTV's newest Jackass film Bad Grandpa, and Palme d'Or winner Blue is the Warmest Color.
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