Weekend Preview: Captain Hanks

The first of Tom Hanks' Oscar contenders, Captain Philips, sets sail into 3,020 theaters, while Robert Rodriguez's action sequel Machete Kills fights its way into 2,538 theaters.

According to The Wrap, Captain Philips performed very well in last Saturday's 800 theater sneak preview, with sold out showings in many of the theaters. Unfortunately, I have not found any hard numbers to describe Philips' performance, which makes those previews less helpful in predicting the film's opening weekend. The Wrap's article does reveal that the film played especially well among adult audiences, with 71% of the previews' audiences older than 35. That is a much higher percentage than Gravity's opening weekend (59% above 35.) Philips is opening in slightly less theaters than Gravity, and definitely won't match its record breaking opening. I do think it will perform well, though. Argo offers a good comparison of an adult oriented, based-on-a-true-story action drama with serious Oscar potential. That film opened in 3,232 theaters and grossed $19 million. I think Captain Philips should open above that number, with a gross around $35 million, if Gravity lets it.

The only other new nationwide release this weekend is Robert Rodriguez's Machete Kills, the followup to his 2010 film Machete. Surprisingly, that film holds a 72% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes (while the sequel currently holds a 27% rotten rating.) Machete opened in 2,670 theaters to a $11 million gross, which is a number Kills probably won't be able to reach. Most of this years' action sequels haven't performed well, with Riddick's opening weekend about 20% below The Chronicles of Riddick's ($19 million versus $24 million), and Kick Ass 2 opening almost 33% below Kick Ass ($13.3 million versus $19.8 million.) If Machete Kills has a similar decline, such as 25%, then it should open around $8.5 million.

Also opening this weekend:
All the Boys Love Mandy Lane;
As I Lay Dying;
Broadway Idiot;
Cassadega - three theaters;
Design is One;
Escape from Tomorrow - thirty theaters;
God Loves Uganda - one theater;
I Am Divine - one theater;
The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete - 147 theaters;
Romeo and Juliet - 461 theaters;
Sweetwater;
Zero Charisma.

And Enough Said expands nationwide into 606 theaters.

Tune in next weekend to witness Carrie, Escape Plan, and The Fifth Estate battle for audiences nationwide, with 12 Years a Slave, All is Lost, and Kill Your Darlings trying to make waves in limited release.