Weekend Preview: Bad in Blue

Ridley Scott shouldn't have a hard time conquering the box office this weekend with his drug trafficking thriller The Counselor litigating its way into 3,044 theaters this weekend. It won't see much competition from Bad Grandpa, MTV's latest Jackass installment, which brings its dumb antics into 3,336 theaters. Palme d'Or winner Blue is the Warmest Color also starts its domestic run this weekend in four theaters.

Early reviews are calling The Counselor intense and unapologetically violent. That didn't hurt The Family too much: Luc Besson's mob action comedy has earned $36 million so far, making it his highest domestic grossing directorial effort since The Fifth Element. As for Scott, six of the ten films that he has directed in the past thirteen years have earned more than $100 million domestically. The best comparison to Counselor out of those films is probably American Gangster, which opened to $43 million domestically and went on to earn $130 million. I don't think Counselor will do quite that well, but it should dethrone Gravity with an opening above $30 million.

Bad Grandpa is MTV's fourth Jackass film, but I don't expect it to continue the series' box office trajectory. Jackass: The Movie opened back in 2002 and grossed $22/$64 million domestically. Jackass: Number Two followed four years later and grossed $29/$72 million, and after four more years came Jackass 3-D which grossed $50/$117 million. I think Grandpa will fall behind all of its predecessors with an opening around $20 million.

Blue is the Warmest Color may have awed Steven Spielberg enough for his Cannes jury to award the Palme d'Or to director Abdellatif Kechiche and lead actresses Léa Seydoux and Adèle Exarchopoulos, but that isn't usually enough to get mainstream domestic audiences into the theater. Out of the past ten Palme d'Or winners, only two have grossed more than $10 million domestically: 2011's The Tree of Life ($13 million) and 2004's Fahrenheit 911 ($119 million). The film's NC-17 rating makes it even more inaccessible (and/or unappealing) to mainstream audiences. Showgirls holds the record for highest grossing NC-17 rated film with $20 million domestically. Blue definitely won't get close to that number, but I do think it should play well at the theaters brave enough to show it. There should be enough interest for a per theater average between $75,000 and $100,000 which would put the film's opening weekend gross around $350,000. Beyond this weekend, the film should eventually get a modest nationwide release but will be lucky to earn more than $10 million.

Also opening this weekend:
Bastards;
Capital - two theaters;
Caucus;
Spinning Plates - three theaters;
The Square.

Tune in next week as Ender's Game, Free Birds, and Last Vegas battle for nationwide dominance, while About Time, Dallas Buyers Club, and Diana take on the specialty box office.

Gravity

Gravity (2013)
Directed by Alfonso Cuaron.

I know I'm a little late to this party, but I think this deserves to get posted even though I'll probably just be repeating a lot of the same things that others have already said about the film. Most importantly: I loved it.

So it didn't have much of a plot. I didn't care.

So it got some of the science wrong. I'm not a scientist, so it seemed realistic enough for me.

So it pretty much only had one actor. I don't mind spending an hour and a half with one person as long as they give me a reason to want to.

So the whole thing was CG. Well that was kind of the point.

I'm trying to think of anything that I didn't like about the film, but at the moment nothing is coming to mind. I may be able to think of some criticisms after watching it a few more times, but my first viewing of the film was one of those rare near-perfect moviegoing experiences. Huge theater. Dolby Atmos. 3D. Respectful audience. Perfection.

The experience of seeing this film in the most immersive way possible proves just how wrong Spielberg and Lucas are when they predict the impending death of the movie theater. Gravity's $175 million (and growing) domestic gross proves that the general public is still willing to make the journey to the theater to see a film (and even pay the 3D premiums) if you give them a reason to want to; if you provide them with an experience that they can't get from home or mobile viewing.

But back to the point...this film is one of the most visually, aurally, and emotionally beautiful films I've seen in a very long time, and in case you haven't figured this out yet, I loved it.

Five out of five stars.
Viewed October 8, 2013 at LOOK Cinemas Prestenwood in Dallas, TX.

Weekend Preview: Know Their Names

Chloe Moretz Grace's Carrie remake looks to bleed dough from audiences in 3,157 theaters this weekend, while fellow nationwide releases Escape Plan and The Fifth Estate will probably fall short in 2,883 and 1,769 theaters respectively. In limited release, Oscar heavyweight 12 Years a Slave starts its domestic run in nineteen theaters, Cannes favorite All is Lost debuts in six theaters, and Sundance darling Kill Your Darlings opens in four theaters.

Carrie shouldn't have any trouble scoring the highest opening this weekend, but can it disrupt Gravity's two week streak? The original film adaptation of Stephen King's novel grossed around $33.8 million back in 1976, or almost $130 million when adjusted to account for ticket price inflation. When it comes to horror remakes, some films are able to reap the benefits of enticing new audiences without alienating fans of the original, such as 2003's The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, 2009's Friday the 13th, 2010's A Nightmare on Elm Street, and this year's Evil Dead. Each of these opened above $20 million and went on to gross at least $50 million domestically. Then there are the remakes like 2011's The Thing and Fright Night, which both grossed less than their originals even without adjusting for ticket price inflation. As for Carrie, I expect it to follow the former list of films with an opening above $20 million. Unfortunately, that will probably still fall below Gravity, which declined 22.6% last weekend to $43 million. A decline of 30% this weekend would keep its gross above $30 million, which is definitely possible.

If geriatric action stars can't be successful on their own, then the obvious solution is to put them in a movie together, right? This may have worked for The Expendables, but that success hasn't bled into these stars' subsequent solo films. Both Stallone and Schwarzenegger have already had big action flops this year, with Bullet to the Head flatlining at $9.4 million and The Last Stand falling through with only $12 million domestically. Escape Plan should open above those films, but I expect it to walk away with less than $10 million.

As for The Fifth Estate, despite your feelings about Benedict Cumberbatch or your stand on the film's quality or accuracy, it is hard to deny the general lack of interest surrounding it. Conspiracy thrillers have already had a bad year, with Eric Bana's Closed Circuit grossing a meager $5 million domestically. The founding of WikiLeaks should make for a more interesting story than a market bombing, but the debate is still whether general domestic audiences really care. My expectation is that most don't, which makes this an extremely hard sell, even with two very in-demand (and Oscar hopeful) stars. The Fifth Estate's coffers will stay mostly empty this weekend, with a $5 million domestic opening.

On the limited release front, Oscar frontrunner 12 Years a Slave looks to add a box office win to its growing list of accomplishments. Director Steve McQueen's last film, 2011's Shame, opened to $349,519 from ten theaters. That film had its share of accolades and controversies, but was severely limited at the domestic box office by its NC-17 rating. Given 12 Years' near universal acclaim, I wouldn't be surprised by an opening weekend theater average around $100,000 (similar to fellow Fox Searchlight release and Oscar contender The Tree of Life). That would put the film at a $1.8 million opening weekend, which is almost half of Shame's total domestic gross.

All is Lost is Robert Redford's second film this year (and only his eighth this millennium), and his performance is being hailed as one of the best of the year, if not of his career. The film played very well at Cannes, where the audience was quite enamored with Redford's solo performance. His Oscar frontrunner status should help the film earn at least a $50,000 per theater average for an opening weekend around $300,000.

Though the least Oscar-hopeful of these three new releases, Kill Your Darlings has the distinction of being Daniel Radcliffe's next step in his growth since graduating from Hogwarts (not that he has any reason to distance himself from the franchise that made him a millionaire). First came his controversial stint in the play Equus and then he starred in last year's respectable horror hit The Woman in Black. In Darlings he portrays the poet Allen Ginsberg and is stirring up the controversy again with his sex scene with co-star Dane DeHaan. Unfortunately that may not be enough to keep the film from being murdered by the rest of this weekend's new releases. I wouldn't be surprised if it opens to a per theater average below $20,000 for an opening weekend around $80,000.

Also opening this weekend:
2 Jacks;
American Promise;
Big Ass Spider!;
Birth of the Living Dead;
Boss - 103 theaters;
BoyBand;
The Human Scale;
I'm In Love With a Church Girl - 457 theaters;
The Snitch Cartel;
Torn.

Tune in next week for Ridley Scott's The Counselor, MTV's newest Jackass film Bad Grandpa, and Palme d'Or winner Blue is the Warmest Color.

Weekend Preview: Captain Hanks

The first of Tom Hanks' Oscar contenders, Captain Philips, sets sail into 3,020 theaters, while Robert Rodriguez's action sequel Machete Kills fights its way into 2,538 theaters.

According to The Wrap, Captain Philips performed very well in last Saturday's 800 theater sneak preview, with sold out showings in many of the theaters. Unfortunately, I have not found any hard numbers to describe Philips' performance, which makes those previews less helpful in predicting the film's opening weekend. The Wrap's article does reveal that the film played especially well among adult audiences, with 71% of the previews' audiences older than 35. That is a much higher percentage than Gravity's opening weekend (59% above 35.) Philips is opening in slightly less theaters than Gravity, and definitely won't match its record breaking opening. I do think it will perform well, though. Argo offers a good comparison of an adult oriented, based-on-a-true-story action drama with serious Oscar potential. That film opened in 3,232 theaters and grossed $19 million. I think Captain Philips should open above that number, with a gross around $35 million, if Gravity lets it.

The only other new nationwide release this weekend is Robert Rodriguez's Machete Kills, the followup to his 2010 film Machete. Surprisingly, that film holds a 72% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes (while the sequel currently holds a 27% rotten rating.) Machete opened in 2,670 theaters to a $11 million gross, which is a number Kills probably won't be able to reach. Most of this years' action sequels haven't performed well, with Riddick's opening weekend about 20% below The Chronicles of Riddick's ($19 million versus $24 million), and Kick Ass 2 opening almost 33% below Kick Ass ($13.3 million versus $19.8 million.) If Machete Kills has a similar decline, such as 25%, then it should open around $8.5 million.

Also opening this weekend:
All the Boys Love Mandy Lane;
As I Lay Dying;
Broadway Idiot;
Cassadega - three theaters;
Design is One;
Escape from Tomorrow - thirty theaters;
God Loves Uganda - one theater;
I Am Divine - one theater;
The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete - 147 theaters;
Romeo and Juliet - 461 theaters;
Sweetwater;
Zero Charisma.

And Enough Said expands nationwide into 606 theaters.

Tune in next weekend to witness Carrie, Escape Plan, and The Fifth Estate battle for audiences nationwide, with 12 Years a Slave, All is Lost, and Kill Your Darlings trying to make waves in limited release.

Weekend Preview: Don't Let Go

After wowing audiences at Venice and Telluride, Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity flies into 3,575 theaters domestically this weekend, while Ben Affleck/Justin Timberlake thriller Runner Runner tries to win big in 3,024 theaters, and Metallica Through the Never continues the fantasy after last weekend's IMAX exclusive opening by rocking audiences in 650 theaters this weekend.

Critics are already hailing Gravity as this year's Life of Pi and a frontrunner in several Oscar races. But how will it fare at the box office? The subject matter is going to be a barrier for some people, like my better half, who have no interest in putting themselves through the anxiety of watching Sandra Bullock floating stranded in space. Hopefully the prospect of seeing some of the most innovative visual effects since Avatar will help some people master their fears. I have no question that hardcore science fiction fans will show up in droves, which will launch Gravity to the top of the box office, but how high it will go is hard to say. Pi opened last November to $22 million. 2013 so far has been an okay year for original sci-fi, with Elysium and Pacific Rim opening to $29 and $37 million respectively. Without much competition, two beloved stars, and rave reviews out the wazoo, Gravity should easily open around $35 million domestically.

Ben Affleck made headlines recently by signing up for the cowl and cape in Zack Snyder's upcoming Batman and Superman movie, but will that and goodwill from his Oscar winning Argo help convince audiences to show up to see him share screen time with Justin Timberlake? Runner Runner comes to us from Brad Furman, director of 2011's decently successful The Lincoln Lawyer, which helped Matthew McConaughey re-brand himself as a serious actor. Counter-programming should also give Runner a boost, with the film hoping to snatch up those who think Gravity will be too spacey. Action thrillers haven't performed very well so far this year, with Snitch claiming the highest opening weekend with $20 million. I expect Runner to open somewhere between The Lincoln Lawyer's $13 and Argo's $19 million opening weekends, though there's no chance that Runner will have the legs to match the latter's $136 million total domestic gross.

Metallica Through the Never's IMAX exclusive opening weekend brought in $1.5 million from 305 theaters, which is pretty close to last year's Raiders of the Lost Ark IMAX re-release's $1.6 million opening weekend in 267 theaters. Metallica looks to take the show to a wider audience this week by doubling its theater count. Unfortunately, it is going to lose most of its IMAX screens to Gravity. A $3 million gross this weekend would be nice, but this film is a hard sell outside of the band's dedicated fanbase, even with good reviews.

Also opening this weekend:
A.C.O.D. - three theaters;
All is Bright - ten theaters;
Argento's Dracula 3D - six theaters;
Bad Milo!;
Besharam - 217 theaters;
Concussion;
Dislecksia: The Movie;
Grace Unplugged - 511 theaters;
The Institute;
Let the Fire Burn;
Linsanity;
Nothing to Fear - five theaters;
Parkland - 217 theaters;
Pulling Strings - 387 theaters;
Running Wild: The Life of Dayton O. Hyde;
The Summit - eight theaters.

Tune in next week to see if Tom Hanks' Captain Phillips can fight off Robert Rodriguez's Machete Kills.