Weekend Preview: Desolation

The smoke is settling from the fire that caught the nation three weeks ago, but this weekend a dragon will rise from the ashes to add to his gold hoard. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug will unleash dragonfire in 3,903 theaters this weekend. Tyler Perry seems to be the only person brave (or dumb) enough to stand up to Smaug the Stupendous, with his latest crossdressing outing Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas opening in 2,194 theaters. Two of the years biggest Oscar contenders are also starting their domestic runs this weekend, but in few enough theaters to sneak under the dragon's radar, like a thief with a magic ring. American Hustle opens in six theaters, and Saving Mr. Banks opens in fifteen.

The Hobbit is going to rule the weekend. With the first movie in the trilogy not as universally loved as Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings trilogy, it's a little unclear if Desolation will suffer a little in its opening weekend. The will probably be some people that wait to see if this one is better than the first, and of course there will be those who were so put off by the 3D high frame rate that they're going to wait until the movie hits Netflix. But I think they are going to be in the minority. I already have my tickets for the double feature in IMAX 3D, and I know that I'm not the only one. An Unexpected Journey set a Middle Earth record when it opened to $84.6 million domestically, but its $303 million final gross fell short of all three LOTR films. If Desolation sees a typical sequel decline, it should open no higher than $80 million. I'm still holding onto the hope that it has a shot at $90 million.

As for Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas, my expectations are much lower. Madea has made a lot of money for Perry (she stars in his three highest grossing films), but her last two films both opened to $25 million, much lower than her best outing: Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail which opened to $41 million. Perry's name also seems to be faltering, as evidenced by Tyler Perry Presents Peeples' $9 million total domestic gross. He merely "produced" that film though, so it shouldn't do too much damage to his return as his most popular character. The film definitely won't break any records, but it should be able to match Madea's last two $25 million outings.

Mary Poppins is one of the most beloved films of all time. The story of its journey from book to screen, starring Tom Hanks as Walt Disney and Emma Thompson as P. L. Travers seems to be a match made in Oscar heaven. It may even get close to being as heartwarming and beloved as Mary Poppins. The film has been getting a little early awards recognition (though not as much as this weekend's other awards contender), with Thompson receiving nominations for the SAG Awards and the Golden Globes. I think the film should have a shot at reaching $1 million from its fifteen theaters this weekend before expanding nationwide.

American Hustle on the other hand scored seven Golden Globe nominations, for best picture, director, screenplay, and all four acting categories. If Hustle continues the trend set by director David O. Russell's last two films, Silver Linings Playbook and The Fighter, then it may steal close to half a million this weekend on its way to over $100 million domestically and Oscar gold.

Also opening this weekend:
Afternoon of a Faun - one theater;
Here Comes the Devil;
Liv & Ingmar;
Nuclear Nation.

Tune in next week for new releases Anchorman: The Legend Continues, Walking with Dinosaurs, and in limited release Her, plus expansions for American Hustle, Inside Llewyn Davis, and Saving Mr. Banks.

December 2013 Preview!

Here is a quick look at the films I plan to see in December:

Inside Llewyn Davis (12/6/13)
The Coen brothers add another entry into their very impressive resumes with this intimate look at a folk singer-songwriter trying to survive in 1960's New York.

Out of the Furnace (12/6/13)
Christian Bale stars in this action thriller as a desperate man trying to save his younger brother (Casey Affleck) from the sadistic leader of a dangerous crime ring (Woody Harrelson).  Director Scott Cooper's sophomore film has already gained some recognition from the 2013 Rome Film Festival, though it's still a long shot for some Oscar love.

The Last Days on Mars (12/6/13)
Another very interesting looking indie sci-fi flick, starring Liev Schreiber as part of an eight member research crew stationed on the red planet.

American Hustle (12/13/13)
David O. Russell's crime drama about the FBI ABSCAM operation of the 70's and 80's stars Christian Bale, Jeremy Renner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Adams, and Jenifer Lawrence.  This has a better shot at some Oscar luck than Bale's other film, though at this point in the race it's still a dark horse since few people have seen it yet.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (12/13/13)
Whether or not you think the first Hobbit film lived up to the book's reputation or your expectations, you can't deny that the second film looks epic. EPIC!  With Benedict's Smaug, Beorn, and Tauriel, this installment should be much more action packed than the first.  And that's without even reaching the Battle of Five Armies! 

Saving Mr. Banks (12/13/13)
Tom Hanks plays the perfect Walt Disney in this look at how Marry Poppins became one of Disney's most beloved films. Both Hanks and co-star Emma Thompson (who is equally perfect as author P. L. Travers) are very likely to get Oscar nominations for this film.

Her (12/20/13)
Spike Jonze gives us possibly the most modern love story ever filmed: an introvert writer (Joaquin Phoenix) falls in love with his AI operating system (voiced by Scarlett Johansson). Festival reviews are raving Phoenix and Johansson's performances (and she won best actress at the Rome Film Festival), as well as co-star Amy Adams'.

The Wolf of Wall Street (12/25/13)
After much speculation as to whether it would be released this year (and finally kicking Jack Ryan off Christmas day), Martin Scorsese tries again to get Leo his Oscar. I really hope it works this time, because this film looks incredible.

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (12/25/13)
Ben Stiller directs and stars in this remake based on the short story by James Thurber. Its festival reviews have been mixed, but I'm still looking forward to watching Stiller's day dreamer have the adventure of a lifetime. Plus the first trailer introduced me to Of Monsters and Men, so I kinda feel like I owe them one for that.

Which December releases are you looking forward to the most?

Weekend Preview: The Spark

After last weekend's quieter performance, the domestic box office is definitely going to catch fire this weekend. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire will roar into 4,163 theaters this weekend, completely demolishing the only other new nationwide release: Vince Vaughn's Delivery Man in 3,036 theaters. In limited release, last weekend's The Christmas Candle expands into 400 theaters, Judi Dench's Philomena starts its domestic run in four theaters, and Disney's Frozen tests the water in a single theater.

Catching Fire is obviously going to dominate the box office this weekend. The only question is how wide the fire will spread. The first adaptation in the series opened a year and a half ago and scored a massive $152 million opening weekend gross from 4,137 theaters. That film is widely loved by fans and critics, and holds an 84% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Catching Fire is opening in a few more theaters and has gotten some great early reviews, both of which may help it avoid the typical drop in gross for sequels. I think it might even be able to displace Deathly Hallows Part 2 as the third highest grossing opening weekend of all time with an opening around $170 million.

On the other hand, the big loser of the weekend is definitely going to be Delivery Man. Essentially an American copy of writer/director Ken Scott's 2011 French film Starbuck, Vince Vaughn stars as a chronic underachiever who accidentally fathers 533 children via anonymous donations to a fertility clinic. I find it very odd that Scott would remake his own film after only two years with the only discernible difference (from the trailers at least) being that this one is set in America. (The first trailer is practically shot-for-shot the same as the French film's trailer.) The second thing I don't understand is why distributor Buena Vista thought it would be smart to go up against Catching Fire. They may justify it by claiming counter-programming, but hopefully they won't be too shocked when it makes no money. Vaughn's box office draw is questionable at best, with his past six wide releases opening between $10 and $35 million. This will fall on the lower end of that spectrum, if it's even lucky enough to reach $10 million.

Max Lucado's The Christmas Candle opened in five theaters last weekend to an acceptable per theater average of $13,731. Even with a slight drop in per theater average, Candle has a shot at bringing in around $4 million this weekend.

Weinstein import Philomena debuts domestically this weekend after earning $7.6 million at home in the United Kingdom. Harvey has a pretty good track record with Oscar hopefuls opening in limited release. In just the past few years he's had The King's Speech ($355,450 from four theaters), Silver Linings Playbook ($443,003 from sixteen theaters), The Artist ($204,878 from four theaters), and The Iron Lady ($220,409 from four theaters), all of which took home statues on Oscar night. Philomena's Oscar prospects aren't set in stone yet, but I do think it should have an opening weekend similar to the films mentioned above, most likely above $200,000.

Disney's decision to open Frozen a week early in a single theater may have been rather last minute, but it isn't an uncommon move for the Mouse House. Many of Disney's most successful animated films started their domestic runs in limited release, such as Toy Story 2, A Bug's Life, and Hercules in one theater; The Lion King, Aladdin, and Beauty and the Beast in two theaters; and Pocahontas in six theaters. Disney's most recent animated film to open in limited release was The Princess and the Frog, which opened to $786,190 from two theaters, but I think Frozen will open below $200,000.

Also opening this weekend:
Bettie Page Reveals All;
Gori Tere Pyaar Mein - 112 theaters;
Is the Man Who is Tall Happy? - two theaters;
Narco Cultura;
Weekend of a Champion.

Tune in next week for a busy Thanksgiving weekend featuring Black Nativity, Homefront, and Spike Lee's Oldboy in nationwide release, plus the nationwide expansion of Disney's Frozen, Philomena's expansion, and Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom's limited release.

Weekend Preview: Not Leo's Oscar

This weekend was originally going to be dominated by The Wolf of Wall Street, but Paramount thought Scorsese's three hour cut was a little too long and they pushed him back to Christmas day so the film could be cut down to a friendlier length. That leaves this to be a pretty quiet weekend, with The Best Man Holiday the only new nationwide release. Malcolm D. Lee's The Best Man sequel debuts in 2,024 theaters this weekend, while Alexander Payne's Nebraska starts its limited release in four theaters.

There's no question that Thor is going to reign over the box office again this weekend. The latest entry in Marvel's Phase Two hammered up an impressive $85 million last weekend domestically and has already earned around $250 million at the foreign box office. With very good word of mouth and virtually no competition, I expect the god of thunder to bring in another $50 million this weekend.

The Best Man Holiday will definitely be the highest grossing new release, but that doesn't mean much this weekend. Back in 2009, The Best Man opened to $9 million from around 1,300 theaters and went on to gross $34 million domestically. Holiday should be able to beat that gross, especially now that it doesn't have to compete with Wolf, but I don't think it will have a chance of getting past $15 million.

Alexander Payne has made quite a name for himself both at the box office and critically. His last three films all grossed over $60 million domestically: 2002's About Schmidt ($65 million), 2004's Sideways ($71 million), and 2011's The Descendants ($82 million). He has also received six Oscar nominations, including two wins for his screenplays of Sideways and Descendants. He seems likely to continue that trend with this weekend's Nebraska. Schmidt and Sideways opened in four and six theaters respectively and both earned above $200,000 for their opening weekends. Descendants opened to $1.1 million, but that was from 29 theaters. I think $200,000 is a reasonable expectation for Nebraska this weekend.

Also opening this weekend:
12-12-12 - two theaters;
Charlie Countryman - fifteen theaters;
The Christmas Candle - five theaters;
Dear Mr. Watterson;
Faust - two theaters;
Remnants.

Tune in next week for the sparks of revolution in The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Vince Vaughn's latest comedy misstep in Delivery Man, and Judi Dench's Oscar bid in Philomena.

Weekend Preview: Dark Worlds

The god of thunder returns to Midgard this weekend to conquer the box office, and us mere humans stand no chance to oppose him. Thor: The Dark World thunders into 3,841 theaters, plus last weekend's About Time and 12 Years a Slave expand nationwide into 1,200 and 1,144 theaters respectively. In limited release, Fox's The Book Thief starts is domestic run in four theaters, as does Saoirse Ronan's How I Live Now.

The god of thunder first graced us with his presence in 2011 and we offered up $65 million in tribute to his mightiness in just one weekend. Total honorifics amounted to $181 million, despite the fact that Asgardians have no use of human money. Apparently he enjoyed his time on Earth and is returning again this weekend. I have no doubt that humans around the world will be lining up to offer more sacrifices to the mighty Thor, though I fear we may risk bringing his wrath upon ourselves if our offerings don't exceed those from his last visit. At least $80 million should please him nicely, for now.

Along with topping most people's (including my own) Oscar prediction lists, Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave has grossed around $10 million so far in limited release. The film has ridden a wave of great word of mouth, helping it double its grosses each of its three weekends in release. Following that formula, the film should bring in another $10 million this weekend.

Richard Curtis' About Time opened last weekend to a decent $1 million. Its per theater average was about $6,000, which is lower than I expected. This weekend the time traveling romantic comedy expands nationwide and looks to improve its fortune, but the two films mentioned above may hurt its prospects. I do acknowledge that this will be the best option for anyone seeking a romantic comedy, however any hype for the film has been easily overpowered. A similar per theater average for this weekend should bring in around $7.5 million.

I think it's interesting that Fox decided to test the waters for The Book Thief in a limited opening this weekend rather than going all in and trying to compete with Thor. Hopefully the strategy will pay off and word of mouth will carry the film into a successful nationwide expansion. Fox hasn't yet scheduled that expansion though, which makes me think they're planning a more gradual roll out. That also shows that they expect a softer opening with the hope that the film will build good word of mouth up to its nationwide expansion. $200,000 from four theaters would make for a promising opening.

Saoirse Ronan stars in an action thriller directed by an esteemed director. That formula worked for Hanna and I expect it to work again for How I Live Now under the direction of Oscar winner Kevin Macdonald (for his documentary One Day in September). He's probably best known for The Last King of Scotland, State of Play, and The Eagle, though none of those were big hits at the domestic box office. Scotland debuted in four theaters and earned $142,899, and I have similar expectations for How I Live Now.

Also opening this weekend:
The Armstrong Lie - five theaters;
At Berkeley;
Best Man Down;
A Case of You - one theater;
Finding Mr. Right - three theaters;
The Ghosts In Our Machine;
Go For Sisters - two theaters;
Great Expectations;
Paris Countdown;
People of a Feather;
Reaching for the Moon;
The Starving Games - ten theaters.

Tune in next weekend to see if The Best Man Holiday can flourish now that Leo's film isn't overshadowing it, plus Nebraska and holiday film The Christmas Candle opening in limited release.

Weekend Preview: Dare to Live

November gets off to a busy start this weekend with three new nationwide releases, though each is vying for a different audience segment. Sci-fi adaptation Ender's Game, based on the novel by Orson Scott Card, opens in 3,407 theaters, Thanksgiving-themed animated film Free Birds hopes to not be a turkey in 3,736 theaters, and buddy comedy Last Vegas goes partying into 3,065 theaters this weekend. The specialty box office continues to be busy as well, with About Time in 175 theaters, Diana in 38, and Dallas Buyers Club in nine.

Orson Scott Card's Ender's Game has long been a staple of YA science fiction literature, and now it is on its way to the theater with a great cast. Harrison Ford, Sir Ben Kingsley, Viola Davis, Hailee Steinfeld, and Agigail Breslin star, with Asa Butterfield leading the way as the titular Ender. As I've said a few times before, YA is very hit or miss at the box office. Very few series in the genre achieve the middle ground of obscurity: they either become worldwide phenomenons (Harry Potter, Twilight, Hunger Games), or infamous flops (Beautiful Creatures, The Host, Mortal Instruments [and those three are just from this year]). So on which side will Ender land? The realist in me says it will open around $20 million, but I'm feeling optimistic today. So if Lionsgate manages to get the fans of the books into the theater and draw a fair amount of those of us who somehow didn't have to read the book in high school (I'm not the only one, right?), then it could end up around $40 million.

Adult oriented comedies have performed pretty well this year, with five of them grossing over $100 million so far: The Heat ($159 million), We're the Millers ($148 million), Identity Thief ($134 million), Grown Ups 2 ($133 million), and This is the End ($101 million). But does that mean audiences' taste for these films is insatiable? Last Vegas will definitely test that theory. With four very famous lead actors (Morgan Freeman, Robert De Niro, Michael Douglas, Kevin Kline) Vegas should have a nice opening weekend, but last weekend's star studded catastrophe reminded us that star power isn't always enough to set the box office ablaze. This is going to be a busy weekend and Vegas might get lost in the shuffle since it's opening is the lightest of the three new nationwide releases. A prediction around $20 million seems to be the safest bet at the moment.

I hope that Free Birds won't be a turkey this weekend, even though I know it won't have a feast at the box office. It has been over a month since the last animated film opened (Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 - $34 million opening weekend, $100 million domestic total so far), but a big factor going against the Thanksgiving themed film is its distance from the holiday.  I think most consumers will still be hesitant to fully embrace the holiday this early. It should do decent family business for a few weeks, but will get turned into mincemeat when Frozen opens on November 27th. I expect an opening weekend around $15 million.

The battle for dominance over the specialty box office seems to be focused on newcomer About Time and 12 Years a Slave, which continues its march toward nationwide expansion. 12 Years expanded to 123 theaters last weekend and grossed a little over $2 million. It expands to 412 theaters this weekend, and if it holds on to a per theater average of around $15,000 it should gross around $6.2 million. For About Time to match that gross it would need a per theater average above $35,000, which may not be possible. Universal clearly has faith in Richard Curtis' latest film, as they have already scheduled it for a nationwide expansion next weekend. Curtis is probably best known for romantic comedies Love Actually and Notting Hill (both of which are being heavily referenced in the film's promotional material), which brought in domestic grosses of $59 and $116 million respectively. Of the two, only Love Actually opened in limited release before expanding nationwide (though in 576 theaters) and grossed $6.8 million. I expect About Time to open around $4 million.

The are few public figures that are as universally beloved as the late Princess Diana. So it is understandable that any film that attempts to portray her life would be put under a lot of scrutiny. Unfortunately it seems that Diana won't be able to hold up, at least not critically. Rotten Tomatoes currently rates the film at an abysmal 9% based on forty-four reviews. Most critics seem to agree that Naomi Watts' performance was acceptable, but the writing and directing was not. Luckily for this film, the critics don't usually have much influence over audiences. Princess Diana's name may be enough to get people into the theater, regardless of the film's quality. If that does happen, the film could gross between $.5 and $1 million this weekend.

I definitely agree that Matthew McConaughey is having a career renaissance. After being typecast for many years in mostly bad romantic comedies, McConaughey started reinventing himself in 2011 with The Lincoln Lawyer.  He followed that film up with a very productive 2012 (Bernie, Magic Mike, Killer Joe, The Paperboy), and is getting Oscar buzz for all three of his films this year: Mud, Dallas Buyers Club, and The Wolf of Wall Street. What does that mean for the box office? While McConaughey and co-star Jared Leto are getting a lot of Oscar talk, the subject matter may turn off some prospective audience members. Buyers Club is essentially the story of a homophobic bigot from Texas who contracts HIV and tries to find a way to get unapproved drugs for himself and others, but (from what I've read) has very little character evolution. That may be the more authentic way to tell the story, but most audiences like to see characters learn a little from their experiences. With a light opening of nine theaters, I think it will have a hard time getting past $200,000 for the weekend.

Also opening this weekend:
Big Sur - thirteen theaters;
Broken Circle Breakdown;
Casting By;
Man of Tai Chi - 108 theaters;
Mr. Nobody;
A Perfect Man - two theaters;
The Pervert's Guide to Ideology;
Sal;
Sweet Dreams.

Tune in next week for the first blockbuster of the holiday season: Thor: The Dark World, as well as About Time's nationwide expansion, and the limited release openings of The Book Thief and How I Live Now.

November 2013 Preview!

Here is a quick look at the films I plan to see in November:

Ender's Game (11/1/13)
Based on the novel of the same name by Orson Scott Card, with an amazing cast of Asa Butterfield, Harrison Ford, Abigail Breslin, Hailee Steinfeld, Sir Ben Kingsly, and Viola Davis (who between them have eight Oscar nominations and one win.)

Free Birds (11/1/13)
Dallas based Reel FX's biggest theatrical release to date, starring Owen Wilson, Woody Harrelson, Amy Poehler, and George Takei.

Dallas Buyers Club (11/1/13)
Matthew McConaughey, Jared Leto, and Jennifer Garner star in the based-on-a-true-story about a Texas electrician who contracts HIV and goes to great lengths to get access (for himself and others) to unapproved drugs.

Diana (11/1/13)
The story of the controversial life and death of Princess Diana, portrayed perfectly by Naomi Watts.

Thor: The Dark World (11/8/13)
I'm not too fond of the first Thor, and Natalie Portman's continued involvement in the series doesn't make me too happy. But Christopher Eccleston looks awesome as Malekith, and the overall darker tone that the film seems to take is also very interesting.

The Book Thief (11/8/13)
I haven't read the book, but I'm always up for a good historical drama, especially one starring Geoffrey Rush.

How I Live Now (11/8/13)
I loved Saoirse Ronan in Hannah and can't wait to see her take on another kick ass role in an action thriller

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (11/22/13)
The worldwide phenomenon returns, I just wish everybody would stop focusing on the supposed "love triangle" and see the true allegory of the story.

Philomena (11/22/13)
Judi Dench stars as a mother searching for the son she was forced to give away at birth. The trailer looks genuinely heartwarming and hilarious. Dench should easily get an Oscar nom for the role, but she really just needs to be crowned as queen of the universe.

Oldboy (11/27/13)
Spike Lee remakes Chan-woo Park's classic thriller

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (11/29/13)
Idris Elba portrays Nelson Mandela's struggle against apartheid.

Which November releases do you plan to see?

Thanks for Sharing

Thanks for Sharing (2012)
Directed by Stuart Blumberg.

Part three of me trying to get caught up on reviews. This was a more spur of the moment viewing with the War Department, and I was mainly interested in the film because of Mark Ruffalo and Gwyneth Paltrow's involvement. They were pretty great. The rest of the film...well not so much.

I'm still not sure whether I liked the structure of the film. On paper it sounds good to focus on three couples connected by an addict support group.   However, in execution the number of loosely related story lines became distracting from the real heart of the story.

I think the story would have worked better, not to mention have a more emotional impact, if it had focused more on Ruffalo and Paltrow's characters and their relationship struggles. The other characters would still be important and have their place in the story, but the film would have been more cohesive if they were there to service the main story line rather than detract from it.

Obviously the filmmakers were trying to make as realistic of a film as possible. I think they did a good job for the most part. They captured the gritty, uncomfortable, sometimes painful, yet also beautiful reality of life, and they did it three times in somewhat intertwined story lines. But they overlooked that a film usually functions best with one main story line. The structure of this film works in real life. It even works in novels. But it falls apart on film.

One third of this film was very good and made me care about the characters. I wish the whole film had accomplished that.

2.5 out of 5 stars.
Viewed September 27, 2013 at LOOK Cinemas Prestonwood in Dallas, TX.

The Family

The Family (2013)
Directed by Luc Besson.

Luc Besson's films definitely have a style of their own, whether he is behind the camera, the pen, or both. While The Family fits in pretty well with the Transporter and Taken franchises, I found it much too unapologetically violent. And, to put it frankly, I didn't much care for the film.

There were some things I did like about it though. Robert De Niro did very well as the quirky ex-mobster turned writer, and his bromance with Tommy Lee Jones' perpetually exasperated Agent Stansfield was my favorite aspect of the film. Michelle Pfeiffer also performed well as the eccentric mob-wife, but beyond those three, I didn't find the other main actors (or perhaps their characters) very realistic.

The daughter, for instance, spends most of the movie kicking ass. But one glimpse of the spectacled teacher and she's so helplessly in love that she almost commits suicide when he doesn't give up his goals of being a teacher after knowing her for about a week. She says it's true love. I say it's unreasonable, poorly written, and undermines her strength as a character. And though she and her brother grew up with the mob, I find it hard to believe that they are as universally adept with firearms as the final showdown makes it seem.

But the film's biggest offense was that it failed to make me care about the characters.

What did you think about the Manzonis?

3 out of 5 stars.
Viewed September 17, 2013 at LOOK Cinemas Prestonwood Dallas, TX.

Weekend Preview: Bad in Blue

Ridley Scott shouldn't have a hard time conquering the box office this weekend with his drug trafficking thriller The Counselor litigating its way into 3,044 theaters this weekend. It won't see much competition from Bad Grandpa, MTV's latest Jackass installment, which brings its dumb antics into 3,336 theaters. Palme d'Or winner Blue is the Warmest Color also starts its domestic run this weekend in four theaters.

Early reviews are calling The Counselor intense and unapologetically violent. That didn't hurt The Family too much: Luc Besson's mob action comedy has earned $36 million so far, making it his highest domestic grossing directorial effort since The Fifth Element. As for Scott, six of the ten films that he has directed in the past thirteen years have earned more than $100 million domestically. The best comparison to Counselor out of those films is probably American Gangster, which opened to $43 million domestically and went on to earn $130 million. I don't think Counselor will do quite that well, but it should dethrone Gravity with an opening above $30 million.

Bad Grandpa is MTV's fourth Jackass film, but I don't expect it to continue the series' box office trajectory. Jackass: The Movie opened back in 2002 and grossed $22/$64 million domestically. Jackass: Number Two followed four years later and grossed $29/$72 million, and after four more years came Jackass 3-D which grossed $50/$117 million. I think Grandpa will fall behind all of its predecessors with an opening around $20 million.

Blue is the Warmest Color may have awed Steven Spielberg enough for his Cannes jury to award the Palme d'Or to director Abdellatif Kechiche and lead actresses Léa Seydoux and Adèle Exarchopoulos, but that isn't usually enough to get mainstream domestic audiences into the theater. Out of the past ten Palme d'Or winners, only two have grossed more than $10 million domestically: 2011's The Tree of Life ($13 million) and 2004's Fahrenheit 911 ($119 million). The film's NC-17 rating makes it even more inaccessible (and/or unappealing) to mainstream audiences. Showgirls holds the record for highest grossing NC-17 rated film with $20 million domestically. Blue definitely won't get close to that number, but I do think it should play well at the theaters brave enough to show it. There should be enough interest for a per theater average between $75,000 and $100,000 which would put the film's opening weekend gross around $350,000. Beyond this weekend, the film should eventually get a modest nationwide release but will be lucky to earn more than $10 million.

Also opening this weekend:
Bastards;
Capital - two theaters;
Caucus;
Spinning Plates - three theaters;
The Square.

Tune in next week as Ender's Game, Free Birds, and Last Vegas battle for nationwide dominance, while About Time, Dallas Buyers Club, and Diana take on the specialty box office.

Gravity

Gravity (2013)
Directed by Alfonso Cuaron.

I know I'm a little late to this party, but I think this deserves to get posted even though I'll probably just be repeating a lot of the same things that others have already said about the film. Most importantly: I loved it.

So it didn't have much of a plot. I didn't care.

So it got some of the science wrong. I'm not a scientist, so it seemed realistic enough for me.

So it pretty much only had one actor. I don't mind spending an hour and a half with one person as long as they give me a reason to want to.

So the whole thing was CG. Well that was kind of the point.

I'm trying to think of anything that I didn't like about the film, but at the moment nothing is coming to mind. I may be able to think of some criticisms after watching it a few more times, but my first viewing of the film was one of those rare near-perfect moviegoing experiences. Huge theater. Dolby Atmos. 3D. Respectful audience. Perfection.

The experience of seeing this film in the most immersive way possible proves just how wrong Spielberg and Lucas are when they predict the impending death of the movie theater. Gravity's $175 million (and growing) domestic gross proves that the general public is still willing to make the journey to the theater to see a film (and even pay the 3D premiums) if you give them a reason to want to; if you provide them with an experience that they can't get from home or mobile viewing.

But back to the point...this film is one of the most visually, aurally, and emotionally beautiful films I've seen in a very long time, and in case you haven't figured this out yet, I loved it.

Five out of five stars.
Viewed October 8, 2013 at LOOK Cinemas Prestenwood in Dallas, TX.

Weekend Preview: Know Their Names

Chloe Moretz Grace's Carrie remake looks to bleed dough from audiences in 3,157 theaters this weekend, while fellow nationwide releases Escape Plan and The Fifth Estate will probably fall short in 2,883 and 1,769 theaters respectively. In limited release, Oscar heavyweight 12 Years a Slave starts its domestic run in nineteen theaters, Cannes favorite All is Lost debuts in six theaters, and Sundance darling Kill Your Darlings opens in four theaters.

Carrie shouldn't have any trouble scoring the highest opening this weekend, but can it disrupt Gravity's two week streak? The original film adaptation of Stephen King's novel grossed around $33.8 million back in 1976, or almost $130 million when adjusted to account for ticket price inflation. When it comes to horror remakes, some films are able to reap the benefits of enticing new audiences without alienating fans of the original, such as 2003's The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, 2009's Friday the 13th, 2010's A Nightmare on Elm Street, and this year's Evil Dead. Each of these opened above $20 million and went on to gross at least $50 million domestically. Then there are the remakes like 2011's The Thing and Fright Night, which both grossed less than their originals even without adjusting for ticket price inflation. As for Carrie, I expect it to follow the former list of films with an opening above $20 million. Unfortunately, that will probably still fall below Gravity, which declined 22.6% last weekend to $43 million. A decline of 30% this weekend would keep its gross above $30 million, which is definitely possible.

If geriatric action stars can't be successful on their own, then the obvious solution is to put them in a movie together, right? This may have worked for The Expendables, but that success hasn't bled into these stars' subsequent solo films. Both Stallone and Schwarzenegger have already had big action flops this year, with Bullet to the Head flatlining at $9.4 million and The Last Stand falling through with only $12 million domestically. Escape Plan should open above those films, but I expect it to walk away with less than $10 million.

As for The Fifth Estate, despite your feelings about Benedict Cumberbatch or your stand on the film's quality or accuracy, it is hard to deny the general lack of interest surrounding it. Conspiracy thrillers have already had a bad year, with Eric Bana's Closed Circuit grossing a meager $5 million domestically. The founding of WikiLeaks should make for a more interesting story than a market bombing, but the debate is still whether general domestic audiences really care. My expectation is that most don't, which makes this an extremely hard sell, even with two very in-demand (and Oscar hopeful) stars. The Fifth Estate's coffers will stay mostly empty this weekend, with a $5 million domestic opening.

On the limited release front, Oscar frontrunner 12 Years a Slave looks to add a box office win to its growing list of accomplishments. Director Steve McQueen's last film, 2011's Shame, opened to $349,519 from ten theaters. That film had its share of accolades and controversies, but was severely limited at the domestic box office by its NC-17 rating. Given 12 Years' near universal acclaim, I wouldn't be surprised by an opening weekend theater average around $100,000 (similar to fellow Fox Searchlight release and Oscar contender The Tree of Life). That would put the film at a $1.8 million opening weekend, which is almost half of Shame's total domestic gross.

All is Lost is Robert Redford's second film this year (and only his eighth this millennium), and his performance is being hailed as one of the best of the year, if not of his career. The film played very well at Cannes, where the audience was quite enamored with Redford's solo performance. His Oscar frontrunner status should help the film earn at least a $50,000 per theater average for an opening weekend around $300,000.

Though the least Oscar-hopeful of these three new releases, Kill Your Darlings has the distinction of being Daniel Radcliffe's next step in his growth since graduating from Hogwarts (not that he has any reason to distance himself from the franchise that made him a millionaire). First came his controversial stint in the play Equus and then he starred in last year's respectable horror hit The Woman in Black. In Darlings he portrays the poet Allen Ginsberg and is stirring up the controversy again with his sex scene with co-star Dane DeHaan. Unfortunately that may not be enough to keep the film from being murdered by the rest of this weekend's new releases. I wouldn't be surprised if it opens to a per theater average below $20,000 for an opening weekend around $80,000.

Also opening this weekend:
2 Jacks;
American Promise;
Big Ass Spider!;
Birth of the Living Dead;
Boss - 103 theaters;
BoyBand;
The Human Scale;
I'm In Love With a Church Girl - 457 theaters;
The Snitch Cartel;
Torn.

Tune in next week for Ridley Scott's The Counselor, MTV's newest Jackass film Bad Grandpa, and Palme d'Or winner Blue is the Warmest Color.