May 2013 Preview!

Here is a quick look at the films I plan to see in May:

Iron Man 3 (5/3/13)
The first one was great. The second one was ok. I think Ben Kingsley's Mandarin should help the third outing be almost as good as the first.

The Great Gatsby (5/10/13)
Confession: I have not read F. Scott Fitzgerald's novel on which this film is based. However, I do know that director Baz Luhrmann knows how to make beautiful, complex films, and Gatsby looks to excel in both categories. What's yet to be seen is whether the adaptation can make a profit on its estimated production budget of $127 million.

Star Trek Into Darkness (5/17/13)
JJ's long awaited sequel to 2009's Star Trek. On my birthday. Now if only we knew the true identity of Benedict's villain...

Epic (5/24/13)
An interesting premise where a young girl gets pulled into a fantastical miniature forest world (possibly her backyard?) in order to help the leafmen defeat the forces of evil. I'll take this over this day's other releases any day.

After Earth (5/31/13)
Unlike most people, I still have some faith in Shyamalan, even after critical duds Lady in the Water, The Happening, and The Last Airbender. Maybe I'm just blinded by the post-apocalyptic science fiction plot, but I'm definitely interested in seeing this one.

Now You See Me (5/31/13)
Not-Michael Cera, The Hulk, Tallahassee/Haymitch, the captain from Prometheus, The Voice of God, and Alfred Pennyworth star in a magic show/bank robbery heist thriller. Count me in.

I'm sure you can tell which of these I'm looking forward to the most, so which of May's releases are you most excited about?

Weekend Preview: Home Run for Robinson

Jackie Robinson biopic 42 should have no problem hitting a home run this weekend (though it won't get anywhere close to a grand slam), while Scary Movie 5 will have a hard time scaring up much of an audience. In limited release, The Place Beyond the Pines and Trance are expanding into into moderate releases, while Terrence Malick's To The Wonder opens in 18 theaters.

Though it is still considered "America's Pastime", baseball has always been a tough sell at the box office. No baseball film has ever opened above $20 million, though 2011's Moneyball got the closest with its $19.5 million opening weekend. The highest grossing baseball film of all time is 1992's A League of Their Own which grossed $107 million at the domestic box office. In comparison, four films about football (Remember the Titans, The Longest Yard, The Waterboy, and The Blind Side) have domestic grosses above $115 million. Considering Robinson's reputation and the film's mostly good reviews, I think 42 might have a chance at stealing third base towards having the highest grossing opening weekend of all time for a film about baseball, but I'm not sure it can make it all the way to home plate.

Probably the only people who are hoping the feel good baseball movie of the year is a flop are the Weinstein curmudgeons, because they know that is the only way that Scary Movie 5 has any hope at success. The horror spoof genre has already had one major success so far this year: January's A Haunted House. That film opened to $18 million on its way to a $40 million total domestic gross, against a $2.5 million production budget. Scary Movie 5 cost $20 million and is opening thirteen years after the first film in the franchise (and seven since the most recent), featuring two "stars" who only the tabloids really care about anymore. Brand recognition might get this to a $15 million opening weekend, but it won't open above A Haunted House.

After grossing $1.3 million during its two weeks in under thirty theaters, The Place Beyond the Pines is set to expand into 514 theaters this weekend. The film should make between $5 and $10 million this weekend, which would set it nicely on track toward passing its $15 million production budget. Trance, which has grossed $163,523 so far, is expanding into 438 theaters this weekend. It will definitely gross less than Pines, though anything below $3 million would be pretty disappointing. Lastly, To The Wonder is opening in 18 theaters and will have a hard time reaching $1 million. Malick's The Tree of Life opened to $372,920 from four theaters, which would suggest a $1.6 million opening weekend for To The Wonder. Unfortunately Wonder also has to contend with The Tree of Life's reputation, which will probably drive its final domestic gross below that film's $13 million haul.

So are you going to the cinema this weekend for the big game or to see one of the more obscure choices?

Tune in next week to see Oblivion battle Tom Cruise's reputation.

Weekend Preview: Evil 3D Dinosaurs

After a busy last two weekends of March, the box office is now settling in for a quieter April. Only seven nationwide releases are scheduled for the month, compared to fifteen in March. April is starting off with two blasts from the past: Sam Raimi's horror remake Evil Dead and the 3D re-release of Jurassic Park. In limited release, James McAvoy stars in Danny Boyle's hypno-crime drama Trance.

Unfortunately, I think G.I. Joe is going to be king of the box office again. With mostly better reviews than The Rise of Cobra and not much competition from new releases, Retaliation should stay on top with a weekend gross in the mid-to-upper twenties. My choice to see this weekend should hopefully take home second place. After ten years of inspiring children's love of dinosaurs (and a couple not so great sequels), Jurassic Park is finally returning to the cinema in 3D. In general, I'm not a very big fan of 3D re-releases and I'm obviously not the only one, considering the difference between the final domestic grosses of The Lion King (3D) ($94 million) back in 2011 and Monsters, Inc. (3D) ($33 million) last December. Considering the length of time since its original release, I think Jurassic Park 3D's opening weekend should be similar to Titanic 3D's, which would put it in the upper teens.

Lastly, Evil Dead joins the ranks of those hard to predict horror remakes. It could perform well, like January's Texas Chainsaw 3D, or it could be a major disappointment like 2011's Fright Night and The Thing. Confounding the situation is the fact that the Evil Dead franchise's biggest success is its cult following. The Evil Dead grossed a total of $2.4 million domestically back in 1983, Evil Dead 2 grossed $5.9 million in 1987, and Army of Darkness grossed $11.5 million in 1993. The cult following could translate into box office receipts, but I wouldn't count on it. I see Evil Dead making no more than $10 million this weekend.

Six of Danny Boyle's nine films have opened in limited release, of which Slumdog Millionaire had the highest opening weekend with $360,018 from ten theaters. Trance is only opening in four theaters, but a weekend gross around $300,000 shouldn't be out of its reach.

Which trip down memory lane do you prefer to take this weekend? My money is going to the 3D dinosaurs.

Tune in next week to see if Jackie Robinson biopic 42 will pitch a no-hitter against Scary Movie 5.