December 2013 Preview!

Here is a quick look at the films I plan to see in December:

Inside Llewyn Davis (12/6/13)
The Coen brothers add another entry into their very impressive resumes with this intimate look at a folk singer-songwriter trying to survive in 1960's New York.

Out of the Furnace (12/6/13)
Christian Bale stars in this action thriller as a desperate man trying to save his younger brother (Casey Affleck) from the sadistic leader of a dangerous crime ring (Woody Harrelson).  Director Scott Cooper's sophomore film has already gained some recognition from the 2013 Rome Film Festival, though it's still a long shot for some Oscar love.

The Last Days on Mars (12/6/13)
Another very interesting looking indie sci-fi flick, starring Liev Schreiber as part of an eight member research crew stationed on the red planet.

American Hustle (12/13/13)
David O. Russell's crime drama about the FBI ABSCAM operation of the 70's and 80's stars Christian Bale, Jeremy Renner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Adams, and Jenifer Lawrence.  This has a better shot at some Oscar luck than Bale's other film, though at this point in the race it's still a dark horse since few people have seen it yet.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (12/13/13)
Whether or not you think the first Hobbit film lived up to the book's reputation or your expectations, you can't deny that the second film looks epic. EPIC!  With Benedict's Smaug, Beorn, and Tauriel, this installment should be much more action packed than the first.  And that's without even reaching the Battle of Five Armies! 

Saving Mr. Banks (12/13/13)
Tom Hanks plays the perfect Walt Disney in this look at how Marry Poppins became one of Disney's most beloved films. Both Hanks and co-star Emma Thompson (who is equally perfect as author P. L. Travers) are very likely to get Oscar nominations for this film.

Her (12/20/13)
Spike Jonze gives us possibly the most modern love story ever filmed: an introvert writer (Joaquin Phoenix) falls in love with his AI operating system (voiced by Scarlett Johansson). Festival reviews are raving Phoenix and Johansson's performances (and she won best actress at the Rome Film Festival), as well as co-star Amy Adams'.

The Wolf of Wall Street (12/25/13)
After much speculation as to whether it would be released this year (and finally kicking Jack Ryan off Christmas day), Martin Scorsese tries again to get Leo his Oscar. I really hope it works this time, because this film looks incredible.

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (12/25/13)
Ben Stiller directs and stars in this remake based on the short story by James Thurber. Its festival reviews have been mixed, but I'm still looking forward to watching Stiller's day dreamer have the adventure of a lifetime. Plus the first trailer introduced me to Of Monsters and Men, so I kinda feel like I owe them one for that.

Which December releases are you looking forward to the most?

Weekend Preview: The Spark

After last weekend's quieter performance, the domestic box office is definitely going to catch fire this weekend. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire will roar into 4,163 theaters this weekend, completely demolishing the only other new nationwide release: Vince Vaughn's Delivery Man in 3,036 theaters. In limited release, last weekend's The Christmas Candle expands into 400 theaters, Judi Dench's Philomena starts its domestic run in four theaters, and Disney's Frozen tests the water in a single theater.

Catching Fire is obviously going to dominate the box office this weekend. The only question is how wide the fire will spread. The first adaptation in the series opened a year and a half ago and scored a massive $152 million opening weekend gross from 4,137 theaters. That film is widely loved by fans and critics, and holds an 84% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Catching Fire is opening in a few more theaters and has gotten some great early reviews, both of which may help it avoid the typical drop in gross for sequels. I think it might even be able to displace Deathly Hallows Part 2 as the third highest grossing opening weekend of all time with an opening around $170 million.

On the other hand, the big loser of the weekend is definitely going to be Delivery Man. Essentially an American copy of writer/director Ken Scott's 2011 French film Starbuck, Vince Vaughn stars as a chronic underachiever who accidentally fathers 533 children via anonymous donations to a fertility clinic. I find it very odd that Scott would remake his own film after only two years with the only discernible difference (from the trailers at least) being that this one is set in America. (The first trailer is practically shot-for-shot the same as the French film's trailer.) The second thing I don't understand is why distributor Buena Vista thought it would be smart to go up against Catching Fire. They may justify it by claiming counter-programming, but hopefully they won't be too shocked when it makes no money. Vaughn's box office draw is questionable at best, with his past six wide releases opening between $10 and $35 million. This will fall on the lower end of that spectrum, if it's even lucky enough to reach $10 million.

Max Lucado's The Christmas Candle opened in five theaters last weekend to an acceptable per theater average of $13,731. Even with a slight drop in per theater average, Candle has a shot at bringing in around $4 million this weekend.

Weinstein import Philomena debuts domestically this weekend after earning $7.6 million at home in the United Kingdom. Harvey has a pretty good track record with Oscar hopefuls opening in limited release. In just the past few years he's had The King's Speech ($355,450 from four theaters), Silver Linings Playbook ($443,003 from sixteen theaters), The Artist ($204,878 from four theaters), and The Iron Lady ($220,409 from four theaters), all of which took home statues on Oscar night. Philomena's Oscar prospects aren't set in stone yet, but I do think it should have an opening weekend similar to the films mentioned above, most likely above $200,000.

Disney's decision to open Frozen a week early in a single theater may have been rather last minute, but it isn't an uncommon move for the Mouse House. Many of Disney's most successful animated films started their domestic runs in limited release, such as Toy Story 2, A Bug's Life, and Hercules in one theater; The Lion King, Aladdin, and Beauty and the Beast in two theaters; and Pocahontas in six theaters. Disney's most recent animated film to open in limited release was The Princess and the Frog, which opened to $786,190 from two theaters, but I think Frozen will open below $200,000.

Also opening this weekend:
Bettie Page Reveals All;
Gori Tere Pyaar Mein - 112 theaters;
Is the Man Who is Tall Happy? - two theaters;
Narco Cultura;
Weekend of a Champion.

Tune in next week for a busy Thanksgiving weekend featuring Black Nativity, Homefront, and Spike Lee's Oldboy in nationwide release, plus the nationwide expansion of Disney's Frozen, Philomena's expansion, and Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom's limited release.

Weekend Preview: Not Leo's Oscar

This weekend was originally going to be dominated by The Wolf of Wall Street, but Paramount thought Scorsese's three hour cut was a little too long and they pushed him back to Christmas day so the film could be cut down to a friendlier length. That leaves this to be a pretty quiet weekend, with The Best Man Holiday the only new nationwide release. Malcolm D. Lee's The Best Man sequel debuts in 2,024 theaters this weekend, while Alexander Payne's Nebraska starts its limited release in four theaters.

There's no question that Thor is going to reign over the box office again this weekend. The latest entry in Marvel's Phase Two hammered up an impressive $85 million last weekend domestically and has already earned around $250 million at the foreign box office. With very good word of mouth and virtually no competition, I expect the god of thunder to bring in another $50 million this weekend.

The Best Man Holiday will definitely be the highest grossing new release, but that doesn't mean much this weekend. Back in 2009, The Best Man opened to $9 million from around 1,300 theaters and went on to gross $34 million domestically. Holiday should be able to beat that gross, especially now that it doesn't have to compete with Wolf, but I don't think it will have a chance of getting past $15 million.

Alexander Payne has made quite a name for himself both at the box office and critically. His last three films all grossed over $60 million domestically: 2002's About Schmidt ($65 million), 2004's Sideways ($71 million), and 2011's The Descendants ($82 million). He has also received six Oscar nominations, including two wins for his screenplays of Sideways and Descendants. He seems likely to continue that trend with this weekend's Nebraska. Schmidt and Sideways opened in four and six theaters respectively and both earned above $200,000 for their opening weekends. Descendants opened to $1.1 million, but that was from 29 theaters. I think $200,000 is a reasonable expectation for Nebraska this weekend.

Also opening this weekend:
12-12-12 - two theaters;
Charlie Countryman - fifteen theaters;
The Christmas Candle - five theaters;
Dear Mr. Watterson;
Faust - two theaters;
Remnants.

Tune in next week for the sparks of revolution in The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Vince Vaughn's latest comedy misstep in Delivery Man, and Judi Dench's Oscar bid in Philomena.

Weekend Preview: Dark Worlds

The god of thunder returns to Midgard this weekend to conquer the box office, and us mere humans stand no chance to oppose him. Thor: The Dark World thunders into 3,841 theaters, plus last weekend's About Time and 12 Years a Slave expand nationwide into 1,200 and 1,144 theaters respectively. In limited release, Fox's The Book Thief starts is domestic run in four theaters, as does Saoirse Ronan's How I Live Now.

The god of thunder first graced us with his presence in 2011 and we offered up $65 million in tribute to his mightiness in just one weekend. Total honorifics amounted to $181 million, despite the fact that Asgardians have no use of human money. Apparently he enjoyed his time on Earth and is returning again this weekend. I have no doubt that humans around the world will be lining up to offer more sacrifices to the mighty Thor, though I fear we may risk bringing his wrath upon ourselves if our offerings don't exceed those from his last visit. At least $80 million should please him nicely, for now.

Along with topping most people's (including my own) Oscar prediction lists, Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave has grossed around $10 million so far in limited release. The film has ridden a wave of great word of mouth, helping it double its grosses each of its three weekends in release. Following that formula, the film should bring in another $10 million this weekend.

Richard Curtis' About Time opened last weekend to a decent $1 million. Its per theater average was about $6,000, which is lower than I expected. This weekend the time traveling romantic comedy expands nationwide and looks to improve its fortune, but the two films mentioned above may hurt its prospects. I do acknowledge that this will be the best option for anyone seeking a romantic comedy, however any hype for the film has been easily overpowered. A similar per theater average for this weekend should bring in around $7.5 million.

I think it's interesting that Fox decided to test the waters for The Book Thief in a limited opening this weekend rather than going all in and trying to compete with Thor. Hopefully the strategy will pay off and word of mouth will carry the film into a successful nationwide expansion. Fox hasn't yet scheduled that expansion though, which makes me think they're planning a more gradual roll out. That also shows that they expect a softer opening with the hope that the film will build good word of mouth up to its nationwide expansion. $200,000 from four theaters would make for a promising opening.

Saoirse Ronan stars in an action thriller directed by an esteemed director. That formula worked for Hanna and I expect it to work again for How I Live Now under the direction of Oscar winner Kevin Macdonald (for his documentary One Day in September). He's probably best known for The Last King of Scotland, State of Play, and The Eagle, though none of those were big hits at the domestic box office. Scotland debuted in four theaters and earned $142,899, and I have similar expectations for How I Live Now.

Also opening this weekend:
The Armstrong Lie - five theaters;
At Berkeley;
Best Man Down;
A Case of You - one theater;
Finding Mr. Right - three theaters;
The Ghosts In Our Machine;
Go For Sisters - two theaters;
Great Expectations;
Paris Countdown;
People of a Feather;
Reaching for the Moon;
The Starving Games - ten theaters.

Tune in next weekend to see if The Best Man Holiday can flourish now that Leo's film isn't overshadowing it, plus Nebraska and holiday film The Christmas Candle opening in limited release.