Weekend Preview: Dare to Live

November gets off to a busy start this weekend with three new nationwide releases, though each is vying for a different audience segment. Sci-fi adaptation Ender's Game, based on the novel by Orson Scott Card, opens in 3,407 theaters, Thanksgiving-themed animated film Free Birds hopes to not be a turkey in 3,736 theaters, and buddy comedy Last Vegas goes partying into 3,065 theaters this weekend. The specialty box office continues to be busy as well, with About Time in 175 theaters, Diana in 38, and Dallas Buyers Club in nine.

Orson Scott Card's Ender's Game has long been a staple of YA science fiction literature, and now it is on its way to the theater with a great cast. Harrison Ford, Sir Ben Kingsley, Viola Davis, Hailee Steinfeld, and Agigail Breslin star, with Asa Butterfield leading the way as the titular Ender. As I've said a few times before, YA is very hit or miss at the box office. Very few series in the genre achieve the middle ground of obscurity: they either become worldwide phenomenons (Harry Potter, Twilight, Hunger Games), or infamous flops (Beautiful Creatures, The Host, Mortal Instruments [and those three are just from this year]). So on which side will Ender land? The realist in me says it will open around $20 million, but I'm feeling optimistic today. So if Lionsgate manages to get the fans of the books into the theater and draw a fair amount of those of us who somehow didn't have to read the book in high school (I'm not the only one, right?), then it could end up around $40 million.

Adult oriented comedies have performed pretty well this year, with five of them grossing over $100 million so far: The Heat ($159 million), We're the Millers ($148 million), Identity Thief ($134 million), Grown Ups 2 ($133 million), and This is the End ($101 million). But does that mean audiences' taste for these films is insatiable? Last Vegas will definitely test that theory. With four very famous lead actors (Morgan Freeman, Robert De Niro, Michael Douglas, Kevin Kline) Vegas should have a nice opening weekend, but last weekend's star studded catastrophe reminded us that star power isn't always enough to set the box office ablaze. This is going to be a busy weekend and Vegas might get lost in the shuffle since it's opening is the lightest of the three new nationwide releases. A prediction around $20 million seems to be the safest bet at the moment.

I hope that Free Birds won't be a turkey this weekend, even though I know it won't have a feast at the box office. It has been over a month since the last animated film opened (Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 - $34 million opening weekend, $100 million domestic total so far), but a big factor going against the Thanksgiving themed film is its distance from the holiday.  I think most consumers will still be hesitant to fully embrace the holiday this early. It should do decent family business for a few weeks, but will get turned into mincemeat when Frozen opens on November 27th. I expect an opening weekend around $15 million.

The battle for dominance over the specialty box office seems to be focused on newcomer About Time and 12 Years a Slave, which continues its march toward nationwide expansion. 12 Years expanded to 123 theaters last weekend and grossed a little over $2 million. It expands to 412 theaters this weekend, and if it holds on to a per theater average of around $15,000 it should gross around $6.2 million. For About Time to match that gross it would need a per theater average above $35,000, which may not be possible. Universal clearly has faith in Richard Curtis' latest film, as they have already scheduled it for a nationwide expansion next weekend. Curtis is probably best known for romantic comedies Love Actually and Notting Hill (both of which are being heavily referenced in the film's promotional material), which brought in domestic grosses of $59 and $116 million respectively. Of the two, only Love Actually opened in limited release before expanding nationwide (though in 576 theaters) and grossed $6.8 million. I expect About Time to open around $4 million.

The are few public figures that are as universally beloved as the late Princess Diana. So it is understandable that any film that attempts to portray her life would be put under a lot of scrutiny. Unfortunately it seems that Diana won't be able to hold up, at least not critically. Rotten Tomatoes currently rates the film at an abysmal 9% based on forty-four reviews. Most critics seem to agree that Naomi Watts' performance was acceptable, but the writing and directing was not. Luckily for this film, the critics don't usually have much influence over audiences. Princess Diana's name may be enough to get people into the theater, regardless of the film's quality. If that does happen, the film could gross between $.5 and $1 million this weekend.

I definitely agree that Matthew McConaughey is having a career renaissance. After being typecast for many years in mostly bad romantic comedies, McConaughey started reinventing himself in 2011 with The Lincoln Lawyer.  He followed that film up with a very productive 2012 (Bernie, Magic Mike, Killer Joe, The Paperboy), and is getting Oscar buzz for all three of his films this year: Mud, Dallas Buyers Club, and The Wolf of Wall Street. What does that mean for the box office? While McConaughey and co-star Jared Leto are getting a lot of Oscar talk, the subject matter may turn off some prospective audience members. Buyers Club is essentially the story of a homophobic bigot from Texas who contracts HIV and tries to find a way to get unapproved drugs for himself and others, but (from what I've read) has very little character evolution. That may be the more authentic way to tell the story, but most audiences like to see characters learn a little from their experiences. With a light opening of nine theaters, I think it will have a hard time getting past $200,000 for the weekend.

Also opening this weekend:
Big Sur - thirteen theaters;
Broken Circle Breakdown;
Casting By;
Man of Tai Chi - 108 theaters;
Mr. Nobody;
A Perfect Man - two theaters;
The Pervert's Guide to Ideology;
Sal;
Sweet Dreams.

Tune in next week for the first blockbuster of the holiday season: Thor: The Dark World, as well as About Time's nationwide expansion, and the limited release openings of The Book Thief and How I Live Now.

November 2013 Preview!

Here is a quick look at the films I plan to see in November:

Ender's Game (11/1/13)
Based on the novel of the same name by Orson Scott Card, with an amazing cast of Asa Butterfield, Harrison Ford, Abigail Breslin, Hailee Steinfeld, Sir Ben Kingsly, and Viola Davis (who between them have eight Oscar nominations and one win.)

Free Birds (11/1/13)
Dallas based Reel FX's biggest theatrical release to date, starring Owen Wilson, Woody Harrelson, Amy Poehler, and George Takei.

Dallas Buyers Club (11/1/13)
Matthew McConaughey, Jared Leto, and Jennifer Garner star in the based-on-a-true-story about a Texas electrician who contracts HIV and goes to great lengths to get access (for himself and others) to unapproved drugs.

Diana (11/1/13)
The story of the controversial life and death of Princess Diana, portrayed perfectly by Naomi Watts.

Thor: The Dark World (11/8/13)
I'm not too fond of the first Thor, and Natalie Portman's continued involvement in the series doesn't make me too happy. But Christopher Eccleston looks awesome as Malekith, and the overall darker tone that the film seems to take is also very interesting.

The Book Thief (11/8/13)
I haven't read the book, but I'm always up for a good historical drama, especially one starring Geoffrey Rush.

How I Live Now (11/8/13)
I loved Saoirse Ronan in Hannah and can't wait to see her take on another kick ass role in an action thriller

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (11/22/13)
The worldwide phenomenon returns, I just wish everybody would stop focusing on the supposed "love triangle" and see the true allegory of the story.

Philomena (11/22/13)
Judi Dench stars as a mother searching for the son she was forced to give away at birth. The trailer looks genuinely heartwarming and hilarious. Dench should easily get an Oscar nom for the role, but she really just needs to be crowned as queen of the universe.

Oldboy (11/27/13)
Spike Lee remakes Chan-woo Park's classic thriller

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (11/29/13)
Idris Elba portrays Nelson Mandela's struggle against apartheid.

Which November releases do you plan to see?

Thanks for Sharing

Thanks for Sharing (2012)
Directed by Stuart Blumberg.

Part three of me trying to get caught up on reviews. This was a more spur of the moment viewing with the War Department, and I was mainly interested in the film because of Mark Ruffalo and Gwyneth Paltrow's involvement. They were pretty great. The rest of the film...well not so much.

I'm still not sure whether I liked the structure of the film. On paper it sounds good to focus on three couples connected by an addict support group.   However, in execution the number of loosely related story lines became distracting from the real heart of the story.

I think the story would have worked better, not to mention have a more emotional impact, if it had focused more on Ruffalo and Paltrow's characters and their relationship struggles. The other characters would still be important and have their place in the story, but the film would have been more cohesive if they were there to service the main story line rather than detract from it.

Obviously the filmmakers were trying to make as realistic of a film as possible. I think they did a good job for the most part. They captured the gritty, uncomfortable, sometimes painful, yet also beautiful reality of life, and they did it three times in somewhat intertwined story lines. But they overlooked that a film usually functions best with one main story line. The structure of this film works in real life. It even works in novels. But it falls apart on film.

One third of this film was very good and made me care about the characters. I wish the whole film had accomplished that.

2.5 out of 5 stars.
Viewed September 27, 2013 at LOOK Cinemas Prestonwood in Dallas, TX.

The Family

The Family (2013)
Directed by Luc Besson.

Luc Besson's films definitely have a style of their own, whether he is behind the camera, the pen, or both. While The Family fits in pretty well with the Transporter and Taken franchises, I found it much too unapologetically violent. And, to put it frankly, I didn't much care for the film.

There were some things I did like about it though. Robert De Niro did very well as the quirky ex-mobster turned writer, and his bromance with Tommy Lee Jones' perpetually exasperated Agent Stansfield was my favorite aspect of the film. Michelle Pfeiffer also performed well as the eccentric mob-wife, but beyond those three, I didn't find the other main actors (or perhaps their characters) very realistic.

The daughter, for instance, spends most of the movie kicking ass. But one glimpse of the spectacled teacher and she's so helplessly in love that she almost commits suicide when he doesn't give up his goals of being a teacher after knowing her for about a week. She says it's true love. I say it's unreasonable, poorly written, and undermines her strength as a character. And though she and her brother grew up with the mob, I find it hard to believe that they are as universally adept with firearms as the final showdown makes it seem.

But the film's biggest offense was that it failed to make me care about the characters.

What did you think about the Manzonis?

3 out of 5 stars.
Viewed September 17, 2013 at LOOK Cinemas Prestonwood Dallas, TX.

Weekend Preview: Bad in Blue

Ridley Scott shouldn't have a hard time conquering the box office this weekend with his drug trafficking thriller The Counselor litigating its way into 3,044 theaters this weekend. It won't see much competition from Bad Grandpa, MTV's latest Jackass installment, which brings its dumb antics into 3,336 theaters. Palme d'Or winner Blue is the Warmest Color also starts its domestic run this weekend in four theaters.

Early reviews are calling The Counselor intense and unapologetically violent. That didn't hurt The Family too much: Luc Besson's mob action comedy has earned $36 million so far, making it his highest domestic grossing directorial effort since The Fifth Element. As for Scott, six of the ten films that he has directed in the past thirteen years have earned more than $100 million domestically. The best comparison to Counselor out of those films is probably American Gangster, which opened to $43 million domestically and went on to earn $130 million. I don't think Counselor will do quite that well, but it should dethrone Gravity with an opening above $30 million.

Bad Grandpa is MTV's fourth Jackass film, but I don't expect it to continue the series' box office trajectory. Jackass: The Movie opened back in 2002 and grossed $22/$64 million domestically. Jackass: Number Two followed four years later and grossed $29/$72 million, and after four more years came Jackass 3-D which grossed $50/$117 million. I think Grandpa will fall behind all of its predecessors with an opening around $20 million.

Blue is the Warmest Color may have awed Steven Spielberg enough for his Cannes jury to award the Palme d'Or to director Abdellatif Kechiche and lead actresses Léa Seydoux and Adèle Exarchopoulos, but that isn't usually enough to get mainstream domestic audiences into the theater. Out of the past ten Palme d'Or winners, only two have grossed more than $10 million domestically: 2011's The Tree of Life ($13 million) and 2004's Fahrenheit 911 ($119 million). The film's NC-17 rating makes it even more inaccessible (and/or unappealing) to mainstream audiences. Showgirls holds the record for highest grossing NC-17 rated film with $20 million domestically. Blue definitely won't get close to that number, but I do think it should play well at the theaters brave enough to show it. There should be enough interest for a per theater average between $75,000 and $100,000 which would put the film's opening weekend gross around $350,000. Beyond this weekend, the film should eventually get a modest nationwide release but will be lucky to earn more than $10 million.

Also opening this weekend:
Bastards;
Capital - two theaters;
Caucus;
Spinning Plates - three theaters;
The Square.

Tune in next week as Ender's Game, Free Birds, and Last Vegas battle for nationwide dominance, while About Time, Dallas Buyers Club, and Diana take on the specialty box office.

Gravity

Gravity (2013)
Directed by Alfonso Cuaron.

I know I'm a little late to this party, but I think this deserves to get posted even though I'll probably just be repeating a lot of the same things that others have already said about the film. Most importantly: I loved it.

So it didn't have much of a plot. I didn't care.

So it got some of the science wrong. I'm not a scientist, so it seemed realistic enough for me.

So it pretty much only had one actor. I don't mind spending an hour and a half with one person as long as they give me a reason to want to.

So the whole thing was CG. Well that was kind of the point.

I'm trying to think of anything that I didn't like about the film, but at the moment nothing is coming to mind. I may be able to think of some criticisms after watching it a few more times, but my first viewing of the film was one of those rare near-perfect moviegoing experiences. Huge theater. Dolby Atmos. 3D. Respectful audience. Perfection.

The experience of seeing this film in the most immersive way possible proves just how wrong Spielberg and Lucas are when they predict the impending death of the movie theater. Gravity's $175 million (and growing) domestic gross proves that the general public is still willing to make the journey to the theater to see a film (and even pay the 3D premiums) if you give them a reason to want to; if you provide them with an experience that they can't get from home or mobile viewing.

But back to the point...this film is one of the most visually, aurally, and emotionally beautiful films I've seen in a very long time, and in case you haven't figured this out yet, I loved it.

Five out of five stars.
Viewed October 8, 2013 at LOOK Cinemas Prestenwood in Dallas, TX.

Weekend Preview: Know Their Names

Chloe Moretz Grace's Carrie remake looks to bleed dough from audiences in 3,157 theaters this weekend, while fellow nationwide releases Escape Plan and The Fifth Estate will probably fall short in 2,883 and 1,769 theaters respectively. In limited release, Oscar heavyweight 12 Years a Slave starts its domestic run in nineteen theaters, Cannes favorite All is Lost debuts in six theaters, and Sundance darling Kill Your Darlings opens in four theaters.

Carrie shouldn't have any trouble scoring the highest opening this weekend, but can it disrupt Gravity's two week streak? The original film adaptation of Stephen King's novel grossed around $33.8 million back in 1976, or almost $130 million when adjusted to account for ticket price inflation. When it comes to horror remakes, some films are able to reap the benefits of enticing new audiences without alienating fans of the original, such as 2003's The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, 2009's Friday the 13th, 2010's A Nightmare on Elm Street, and this year's Evil Dead. Each of these opened above $20 million and went on to gross at least $50 million domestically. Then there are the remakes like 2011's The Thing and Fright Night, which both grossed less than their originals even without adjusting for ticket price inflation. As for Carrie, I expect it to follow the former list of films with an opening above $20 million. Unfortunately, that will probably still fall below Gravity, which declined 22.6% last weekend to $43 million. A decline of 30% this weekend would keep its gross above $30 million, which is definitely possible.

If geriatric action stars can't be successful on their own, then the obvious solution is to put them in a movie together, right? This may have worked for The Expendables, but that success hasn't bled into these stars' subsequent solo films. Both Stallone and Schwarzenegger have already had big action flops this year, with Bullet to the Head flatlining at $9.4 million and The Last Stand falling through with only $12 million domestically. Escape Plan should open above those films, but I expect it to walk away with less than $10 million.

As for The Fifth Estate, despite your feelings about Benedict Cumberbatch or your stand on the film's quality or accuracy, it is hard to deny the general lack of interest surrounding it. Conspiracy thrillers have already had a bad year, with Eric Bana's Closed Circuit grossing a meager $5 million domestically. The founding of WikiLeaks should make for a more interesting story than a market bombing, but the debate is still whether general domestic audiences really care. My expectation is that most don't, which makes this an extremely hard sell, even with two very in-demand (and Oscar hopeful) stars. The Fifth Estate's coffers will stay mostly empty this weekend, with a $5 million domestic opening.

On the limited release front, Oscar frontrunner 12 Years a Slave looks to add a box office win to its growing list of accomplishments. Director Steve McQueen's last film, 2011's Shame, opened to $349,519 from ten theaters. That film had its share of accolades and controversies, but was severely limited at the domestic box office by its NC-17 rating. Given 12 Years' near universal acclaim, I wouldn't be surprised by an opening weekend theater average around $100,000 (similar to fellow Fox Searchlight release and Oscar contender The Tree of Life). That would put the film at a $1.8 million opening weekend, which is almost half of Shame's total domestic gross.

All is Lost is Robert Redford's second film this year (and only his eighth this millennium), and his performance is being hailed as one of the best of the year, if not of his career. The film played very well at Cannes, where the audience was quite enamored with Redford's solo performance. His Oscar frontrunner status should help the film earn at least a $50,000 per theater average for an opening weekend around $300,000.

Though the least Oscar-hopeful of these three new releases, Kill Your Darlings has the distinction of being Daniel Radcliffe's next step in his growth since graduating from Hogwarts (not that he has any reason to distance himself from the franchise that made him a millionaire). First came his controversial stint in the play Equus and then he starred in last year's respectable horror hit The Woman in Black. In Darlings he portrays the poet Allen Ginsberg and is stirring up the controversy again with his sex scene with co-star Dane DeHaan. Unfortunately that may not be enough to keep the film from being murdered by the rest of this weekend's new releases. I wouldn't be surprised if it opens to a per theater average below $20,000 for an opening weekend around $80,000.

Also opening this weekend:
2 Jacks;
American Promise;
Big Ass Spider!;
Birth of the Living Dead;
Boss - 103 theaters;
BoyBand;
The Human Scale;
I'm In Love With a Church Girl - 457 theaters;
The Snitch Cartel;
Torn.

Tune in next week for Ridley Scott's The Counselor, MTV's newest Jackass film Bad Grandpa, and Palme d'Or winner Blue is the Warmest Color.

Weekend Preview: Captain Hanks

The first of Tom Hanks' Oscar contenders, Captain Philips, sets sail into 3,020 theaters, while Robert Rodriguez's action sequel Machete Kills fights its way into 2,538 theaters.

According to The Wrap, Captain Philips performed very well in last Saturday's 800 theater sneak preview, with sold out showings in many of the theaters. Unfortunately, I have not found any hard numbers to describe Philips' performance, which makes those previews less helpful in predicting the film's opening weekend. The Wrap's article does reveal that the film played especially well among adult audiences, with 71% of the previews' audiences older than 35. That is a much higher percentage than Gravity's opening weekend (59% above 35.) Philips is opening in slightly less theaters than Gravity, and definitely won't match its record breaking opening. I do think it will perform well, though. Argo offers a good comparison of an adult oriented, based-on-a-true-story action drama with serious Oscar potential. That film opened in 3,232 theaters and grossed $19 million. I think Captain Philips should open above that number, with a gross around $35 million, if Gravity lets it.

The only other new nationwide release this weekend is Robert Rodriguez's Machete Kills, the followup to his 2010 film Machete. Surprisingly, that film holds a 72% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes (while the sequel currently holds a 27% rotten rating.) Machete opened in 2,670 theaters to a $11 million gross, which is a number Kills probably won't be able to reach. Most of this years' action sequels haven't performed well, with Riddick's opening weekend about 20% below The Chronicles of Riddick's ($19 million versus $24 million), and Kick Ass 2 opening almost 33% below Kick Ass ($13.3 million versus $19.8 million.) If Machete Kills has a similar decline, such as 25%, then it should open around $8.5 million.

Also opening this weekend:
All the Boys Love Mandy Lane;
As I Lay Dying;
Broadway Idiot;
Cassadega - three theaters;
Design is One;
Escape from Tomorrow - thirty theaters;
God Loves Uganda - one theater;
I Am Divine - one theater;
The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete - 147 theaters;
Romeo and Juliet - 461 theaters;
Sweetwater;
Zero Charisma.

And Enough Said expands nationwide into 606 theaters.

Tune in next weekend to witness Carrie, Escape Plan, and The Fifth Estate battle for audiences nationwide, with 12 Years a Slave, All is Lost, and Kill Your Darlings trying to make waves in limited release.

Weekend Preview: Don't Let Go

After wowing audiences at Venice and Telluride, Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity flies into 3,575 theaters domestically this weekend, while Ben Affleck/Justin Timberlake thriller Runner Runner tries to win big in 3,024 theaters, and Metallica Through the Never continues the fantasy after last weekend's IMAX exclusive opening by rocking audiences in 650 theaters this weekend.

Critics are already hailing Gravity as this year's Life of Pi and a frontrunner in several Oscar races. But how will it fare at the box office? The subject matter is going to be a barrier for some people, like my better half, who have no interest in putting themselves through the anxiety of watching Sandra Bullock floating stranded in space. Hopefully the prospect of seeing some of the most innovative visual effects since Avatar will help some people master their fears. I have no question that hardcore science fiction fans will show up in droves, which will launch Gravity to the top of the box office, but how high it will go is hard to say. Pi opened last November to $22 million. 2013 so far has been an okay year for original sci-fi, with Elysium and Pacific Rim opening to $29 and $37 million respectively. Without much competition, two beloved stars, and rave reviews out the wazoo, Gravity should easily open around $35 million domestically.

Ben Affleck made headlines recently by signing up for the cowl and cape in Zack Snyder's upcoming Batman and Superman movie, but will that and goodwill from his Oscar winning Argo help convince audiences to show up to see him share screen time with Justin Timberlake? Runner Runner comes to us from Brad Furman, director of 2011's decently successful The Lincoln Lawyer, which helped Matthew McConaughey re-brand himself as a serious actor. Counter-programming should also give Runner a boost, with the film hoping to snatch up those who think Gravity will be too spacey. Action thrillers haven't performed very well so far this year, with Snitch claiming the highest opening weekend with $20 million. I expect Runner to open somewhere between The Lincoln Lawyer's $13 and Argo's $19 million opening weekends, though there's no chance that Runner will have the legs to match the latter's $136 million total domestic gross.

Metallica Through the Never's IMAX exclusive opening weekend brought in $1.5 million from 305 theaters, which is pretty close to last year's Raiders of the Lost Ark IMAX re-release's $1.6 million opening weekend in 267 theaters. Metallica looks to take the show to a wider audience this week by doubling its theater count. Unfortunately, it is going to lose most of its IMAX screens to Gravity. A $3 million gross this weekend would be nice, but this film is a hard sell outside of the band's dedicated fanbase, even with good reviews.

Also opening this weekend:
A.C.O.D. - three theaters;
All is Bright - ten theaters;
Argento's Dracula 3D - six theaters;
Bad Milo!;
Besharam - 217 theaters;
Concussion;
Dislecksia: The Movie;
Grace Unplugged - 511 theaters;
The Institute;
Let the Fire Burn;
Linsanity;
Nothing to Fear - five theaters;
Parkland - 217 theaters;
Pulling Strings - 387 theaters;
Running Wild: The Life of Dayton O. Hyde;
The Summit - eight theaters.

Tune in next week to see if Tom Hanks' Captain Phillips can fight off Robert Rodriguez's Machete Kills.