September 2013 Preview!

Here is a quick look at the films I plan to see in September:

Prisoners (9/20/13)
Hugh Jackman goes to extreme lengths after his daughter goes missing. It may have an overused premise, but the setting and cast list (Jake Gyllenhaal, Viola Davis, Paul Dano, Melissa Leo, and Terence Howard) push this one into the interesting pile.

Rush (9/20/13)
Ron Howard's biopic about Formula 1 drivers Niki Lauda and James Hunt looks like it will be equally thrilling and emotional for both hardcore F1 fans and the rest of us.

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 (9/27/13)
Sony created a tasty hit back in 2009 with the first Cloudy, and its sequel is going to be another round of cheesy hilariousness.

Don Jon (9/27/13)
The ultimately classy and triple hyphenated JGL makes his directorial debut by giving us a cautionary tale about how unrealistic expectations can hurt relationships. Just don't take your grandmother to see it with you. Because porn.

Which September releases are you most excited about?

Weekend Preview: Which Direction?

I think it's a safe call to say that enough Directioners will crowd theaters this weekend to end Lee Daniels' The Butler's two week stay atop the domestic box office. One Direction: This is Us makes its way into 2,735 theaters this weekend, while the weekend's other nationwide newcomers, thrillers Getaway and Closed Circuit, will open in 2,130 and 870 theaters respectively. Also: Brian de Palma's Passion begins its limited release and foreign action film The Grandmaster expands into 749 theaters this weekend.

Morgan Spurlock became one of the few household names in documentary filmmaking after releasing his Oscar nominated documentary Super Size Me, which is also his highest grossing film with $11.5 million. This is Us should easily overtake that number, though a musician's popularity doesn't always translate into their ability to bring audiences into the theater. Of the past six concert movies to be released nationwide, only three can be considered successes. Justin Beiber: Never Say Never ($73 million), Michael Jackson's This Is It ($72 million), and Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour ($65 million) all did good business domestically, while Katy Perry: Part of Me ($25 million), Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience ($19 million), and Glee The 3D Concert Movie ($11 million) all disappointed at the box office. The British boy band has no trouble drawing thousands to their concerts, but will those fans also invade movie theaters this weekend? I think so. This is Us probably won't break Miley Cyrus' concert movie opening weekend record of $31 million, but it should definitely end up around $20 million.

Ethan Hawke probably won't be quite so lucky, with Getaway likely to stall right out of the gate. Hawke has done well so far this year with indie hit Before Midnight and thriller The Purge. His pairing with ex-Disney kid Selena Gomez is questionable at best, as is her attempt (starting with this year's Spring Breakers) to brand herself as a more "mature" actress. Even with a release above two thousand theaters, Getaway will have a hard time gaining enough traction to get past $10 million this weekend.

Fellow late-summer thriller Closed Circuit seems to also be set up for failure this weekend. Focus Features brings the Eric Bana picture to domestic audiences on Wednesday, but won't draw too much attention. Opening in only 870 theaters shows a lack of confidence in its domestic prospects, while mixed reviews will hinder it worldwide despite its topical plot and well established cast (Bana, Rebecca Hall, Jim Broadbent, Julia Stiles, Ciaran Hinds). I expect this one to end up around $5 million through its five day opening.

Weinstein didn't make much of a dent in the box office last weekend with The Grandmaster, which opened to $132,617 from seven theaters. But if the Chinese import can hold on to even a quarter of its $19,000 per theater average, then it should earn around $3 million this weekend.

Passion marks director Brian de Palma's first film in six years, since 2007's Redacted, and is definitely a "De Palma" film a la Carrie, Dressed to Kill, and Body Double. These films are not for everyone, since De Palma's mysteries can be both sexually perverse and gruesome, often at the same time. However, many critics have described his mastery of suspense second only to Hitchcock. Redacted opened with a per theater average of $1,708, but stars Rachel McAdams and Noomi Rapace should help Passion open above that number. The film's theater count hasn't been released yet (as of Thursday afternoon) but I expect it to have an opening weekend around $100,000.

Tune in next week to see how much fight is left in Vin Diesel's Riddick.

Weekend Preview: Mint Chocolate Chip

Thursday PM Update:

Early reviews of City of Bones are tearing up the film as mundane, overly dependent on CGI, and just a bad adaptation in general. Considering the hype going into this weekend, an opening day around $3 million (right between Beautiful Creatures' $2.5 and The Host's $5.3) really is a kiss of death for the series unless it kills overseas. The film will be lucky to end up with $20 million for its five day opening.

The year's fourth YA adaptation will try to make box office magic this weekend, but can it overcome the demons that brought down Beautiful Creatures, The Host, and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters? Also: Lionsgate brings out their latest horror flick You're Next; The World's End, the final installment of Simon Pegg, Nick Frost, and Edgar Wright's Three Flavours Cornetto Trilogy, lands in around 1,400 theaters on this side of the pond; and The Grandmaster makes its domestic debut in seven theaters. And Sony Classics makes a last minute change to add Blue Jasmine's nationwide expansion to this weekend's schedule.

YA fantasy adaptations are usually pretty difficult to predict. For every Harry Potter, Twilight, and Hunger Games there are several Beautiful Creatures, The Host, and Percy Jacksons, and those are just the flops from this year. These book series have large fan followings, but that obviously isn't always enough to perform well at the box office. Those three films opened to $7.5, $10.6, and $14.4 million respectively. In order to secure its sequel prospects, City of Bones needs an opening weekend above $20 million and a five day start (Wednesday to Sunday) around $45 million.

Lionsgate is definitely trying to cash in on this year's wave of blockbuster low budget horror films with You're Next. The year's top three horror films (The Conjuring, Mama, and The Purge) have already grossed a combined $264 million, but only cost a total of $38 million to produce. Including Evil Dead and Texas Chainsaw 3D, the year's top five horror films have all had opening weekends north of $20 million. All signs seem to be indicating that You're Next will continue this trend, so I'm predicting an opening weekend around $25 million.

The first two installments of the Three Flavours Cornetto Trilogy (Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz made a combined $37 million domestically. Edgar, Simon, and Nick have been steadily getting more well known on this side of the pond since those films, especially due to their involvement in Tin Tin, Scott Pilgrim, Paul, and Star Trek. Plus Martin Freeman's role finally got bumped up from cameo to co-star. Unfortunately it does have a few red flags. The film's release is much wider than the first two (607 and 825 theaters), but still pretty low compared to the weekend's other new releases. And the film's title is a little too close to This is the End, June's end of the world comedy that opened to $20 million and is still inching asymptotically toward $100 million. I don't think The World's End has much of a chance of matching that opening, but it should open around $15 million.

If Blue Jasmine continues to follow in the footsteps of Woody Allen's highest grossing film, Midnight in Paris, then he is going to be very happy this weekend. When Midnight expanded nationwide, it grossed $5.8 million from 944 theaters. Blue Jasmine is set to expand into around 1,200 theaters this weekend and has a good chance at grossing above $6 million. And if it holds as well as Midnight did, it should easily dethrone Midnight as Allen's highest grossing film.

Lastly, Weinstein is bringing China's The Grandmaster to domestic audiences. It will be pretty tough for it to gross more than $2 million this weekend since it's only in seven theaters, but it's already set to expand next weekend and should have a good run once it reaches audiences nationwide.

Tune in next week to see if thrillers Closed Circuit and Getaway can steal audiences from One Direction.

This Weekend Preview is Brought to You by the Number 2

Well it looks like the little blue guys are going to put up a decent fight against Denzel and Marky Mark this weekend. The Smurfs 2 la la la-ed its way into around 3,800 theaters on Wednesday, while 2 Guns won't start its heist until Friday in just over three thousand theaters. In limited release, sci-fi thriller Europa Report opens this weekend in three theaters.

After a couple of weeks of clear cut winners, this weekend finally offers a challenge to predict. I think (and hope) that 2 Guns will win the weekend. Early reviews hail it as a fun, fast paced, buddy action film with two very likeable stars. If it opens like some of Washington's recent successes (Safe House: $40 million, The Book of Eli: $32, American Gangster: $43) then it has a definite shot at winning the weekend. But if it opens like director Baltasar Kormakur and Wahlberg's last pairing, Contraband ($24 million), then its chances are a bit slimmer. My prediction is an opening weekend around $40 million.

As for The Smurfs 2, its arrival in theaters will be almost exactly two years after the first one earned a decent $35 million opening weekend. (Domestically it only made a $30 million profit against its $110 production budget, but the two sequels were scheduled so quickly because it made $400 million overseas.) While comparing reviews from the two Smurfs films, it is painfully obvious that Sony has repeated a lot of their mistakes this time around. Most importantly: they made a children's movie that is only really enjoyable for the children. Despicable Me 2 didn't make $300 million so far domestically by entertaining the kids but insulting everybody else who happens to be in the theater. So if Sony ever wants the Smurfs to reach that level of success, they first must learn that children can't drive themselves to the theater. < /rant> So considering that this is basically another round of the same old Smurf antics and that its Wednesday opening only brought in $5 million, I predict an opening weekend (3-day) gross around $25 million, and a five day start below $40 million.

I'm very excited to see Europa Report, so it's a little disappointing that it is starting in only three theaters. Hopefully it will pick up some good word of mouth and get a wider release soon.   Considering its light release, I would be surprised if it makes more than $100,000 this weekend.  But an opening close to that would probably be a good sign of a wider release to come.

Tune in next week for an epic four-way battle between Elysium, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, Planes, and We're the Millers.