Weekend Preview: The Wizard Must Fall

Oz is definitely going to lose the throne this weekend, but the million dollar question is: to whom? This weekend's three new nationwide releases are each vying for a different segment of Oz's audience. For the families there is The Croods, for those looking for some laughs there is Tina Fey's Admission, and for those looking for some thrilling action there is Gerard Butler's Olympus Has Fallen. Two films previously in limited release are expanding this weekend: last weekend's Spring Breakers will spread the party into around 1000 theaters, while last December's Kristen Stewart vehicle On the Road will hit the highway out to 37 theaters.

Though it doesn't sound likely for Oz to give up first place to another family oriented movie, I think that the fact that it is only the second animated film of the year will push Fox's The Croods ahead of the rest of the pack. Back in 2002 Fox released a somewhat similar film called Ice Age to an opening weekend of $46 million. I doubt The Croods will replicate that gross, but an opening close to $40 million would definitely be a win for Fox. Admission and Olympus Has Fallen are a little more difficult to predict. Both could easily reach the mid-$20's unless they don't hold well through the weekend. I would predict Olympus to have the higher gross though, due to a more effective marketing campaign.

Spring Breakers is going to be another wildcard at the box office this weekend. James Franco's crime drama made $263,002 last weekend in only three theaters, for an impressive per theater average of $87,667. (For comparison, Oz had a per theater average of $10,545 last weekend.) If Spring Breakers is able to hold onto a fourth of its opening weekend per theater average, it will be set for a weekend gross around $20 million.

The other film set to expand this weekend is On the Road, last year's adaptation of Jack Kerouac's novel of the same name. The film has already made $154,250, so a gross around half a million for this weekend would definitely make the film's producers feel better about the $25 million they spent making it.

My choice to see this weekend is definitely Olympus Has Fallen. What's yours? Who do you think will win the box office?

Tune in next week for the showdown of the long-awaited G.I. Joe: Retaliation, Stephenie Meyer's The Host, and Tyler Perry's Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor.

Weekend Preview: They're Called Illusions

Halle Berry and Steve Carell invade the box office this weekend in The Call and The Incredible Burt Wonderstone, but it is going to take some serious magic to dethrone last weekend's winner: Oz The Great and Powerful. In limited release, James Franco's Spring Breakers might rob some dough before its nationwide expansion, while Kristen Dunst and Jim Sturgess look for love in fantasy romance Upside Down.

With Oz likely to continue his reign over the box office, it's unlikely for this weekend's new releases to make much of a splash. Burt Wonderstone would be lucky to earn $20 million from 3160 theaters, though an opening weekend in the mid-teen millions is more on par with Carell's recent box office ventures. In 2507 theaters, The Call will have an even more difficult time finding an audience. Other than her appearances in the original X-Men trilogy, only two of Halle Berry's films released thus far in the 21st century have opened above $20 million: 2005's Robots ($36 million) and 2002's Die Another Day ($47 million). And so I think it is a safe bet to predict an opening weekend below $10 million for The Call.

With mixed reviews coming out of SXSW, Spring Breakers begins its theatrical run in three theaters, though is set to expand next weekend to around 600 theaters. The film may be able to reach half a million this weekend, but only if it finds a way to get those celebrating spring break into the theaters. Upside Down is probably the most difficult prediction to make for this weekend. Romance films historically do well during the first part of the year, but the science fiction-fantasy elements may make this a harder sell. And while both Sturgess and Dunst have enjoyed recent critical successes, neither have had many box office successes outside of Dunst's appearances in the original Spider-Man trilogy. Add in the fact that the film is only opening in eleven theaters, and its opening weekend looks quite bleak. I would be surprised if it makes over a quarter of a million.

Are you going to give this weekend's new fare a chance, or are you still trapped in Oz? Leave a comment below to let me know what you plan to see this weekend!

Tune in next weekend to see if Tina Fey's Admission will school The Croods, or if Gerard Butler will save the day in Olympus Has Fallen.